0x1745587c9c78e31e4dcbf96b50d2dbb757e1813d
- Realised P&L
- $-4.37
- Volume
- $79.68
- Markets traded
- 20
- Open portfolio
- $12.49
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-5.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded20
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration40.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)25.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration21.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on August 8? · No | 0.350 | 0.455 | $2.72 | +$0.63 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? · Yes | 0.670 | 0.865 | $2.70 | +$0.61 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? · Yes | 0.800 | 0.895 | $2.34 | +$0.25 |
| US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? · No | 0.780 | 0.795 | $2.13 | +$0.04 |
| US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? · Yes | 0.780 | 0.735 | $1.97 | −$0.12 |
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · No | 0.480 | 0.145 | $0.63 | −$1.46 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? · No | 0.220 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$1.39 |
| Will USA Today (TDAY) beat quarterly earnings? · No | 0.490 | 0.001 | $0.00 | −$1.47 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.93at 0.520S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 5?
- +$1.93at 0.520Will Grab (GRAB) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$0.90at 0.700Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026?
- +$0.00at 0.500New Playboi Carti Album before GTA VI?
- +$0.00at 0.500Will Jesus Christ return before GTA VI?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-06 06:29 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | BUY | 0.7799999701 | $2.09 |
| 08-05 10:28 | WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $78 on August 5? | BUY | 0.2299999285 | $2.09 |
| 08-05 10:19 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 5? | BUY | 0.6899999109 | $2.09 |
| 08-04 21:00 | S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on August 5? | BUY | 0.5199999801 | $2.09 |
| 08-04 12:46 | Will Trump say "COVID" or "Warp Speed" during remarks in Las Vegas? | BUY | 0.4599999076 | $2.09 |
| 08-04 04:19 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 14? | BUY | 0.67 | $2.09 |
| 08-03 20:07 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | BUY | 0.8 | $2.09 |
| 08-03 11:47 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.7799999701 | $2.09 |
| 08-03 03:45 | Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30 PM on August 8? | BUY | 0.3499999246 | $2.09 |
| 08-02 19:36 | Will Grab (GRAB) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.5199999801 | $2.09 |
| 08-02 11:26 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.4799999541 | $2.09 |
| 08-02 00:39 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 3? | BUY | 0.219999905 | $1.39 |
| 08-01 16:23 | Will Donald Trump publicly insult Tucker Carlson by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6999999665 | $2.09 |
| 08-01 00:26 | Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $2.04 |
| 07-31 16:24 | New Rihanna Album before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $2.09 |