Sm1ck
0x16be48404be1623ac87cb5b18df22ff20931af26
- Realised P&L
- $-1.6k
- Volume
- $12.2k
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $439.92
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-13.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration92.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration94.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.547 | 0.460 | $413.49 | −$78.80 |
| Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance · Spain | 0.590 | 1.000 | $16.95 | +$6.95 |
| StandX FDV above $7B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.032 | $9.47 | −$8.57 |
| Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch? · Yes | 0.530 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$349.22 |
| Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance · Argentina | 0.412 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| Will Trump say "doge" or "Dogecoin" during his inauguration speech? · Yes | 0.120 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$48.98 |
| No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? · No | 0.027 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$41.00 |
| Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.025 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$40.53 |
| US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? · Yes | 0.640 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$132.91 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$18.34at 0.899Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
- +$1.40at 0.041Will the government shutdown end November 13?
- +$0.10at 0.999Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 November 10-16?
- +$0.00at 0.460Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on November 21?
- +$-19.75at 0.080Will Zohran Mamdani win second place in the 2025 NYC mayoral election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-19 17:54 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.5899999947 | $10.00 |
| 07-19 17:53 | Spain vs. Argentina: Team to Advance | BUY | 0.4124999799 | $10.00 |
| 01-20 14:35 | No change in Fed interest rates after January 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.0270696039 | $41.00 |
| 01-20 14:29 | Fed decreases interest rates by 25 bps after January 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.025152576 | $40.53 |
| 01-14 15:49 | US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $132.91 |
| 01-05 14:04 | Opinion FDV above $1B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.53 | $349.22 |
| 11-22 02:54 | StandX FDV above $7B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.06 | $0.04 |
| 11-22 02:54 | StandX FDV above $7B one day after launch? | BUY | 0.06 | $18.00 |
| 11-21 10:06 | Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 November 17-23? | SELL | 0.006 | $2.87 |
| 11-20 18:12 | Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 November 17-23? | BUY | 0.023004417 | $3.39 |
| 11-20 18:10 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $88,000 on November 21? | BUY | 0.46 | $0.41 |
| 11-19 21:56 | Will Bitcoin reach $102,000 November 17-23? | BUY | 0.0469999991 | $50.00 |
| 11-16 00:36 | Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 November 10-16? | BUY | 0.999 | $101.39 |
| 11-13 02:42 | Will the government shutdown end November 13? | SELL | 0.055 | $5.50 |
| 10-24 22:49 | Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.5470628251 | $492.29 |