PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

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0x165ed327dd594bfe95a5a9836cad385813cff5aa

Realised P&L
$50.4k
Volume
$1.36M
Markets traded
942
Open portfolio
$31.5k

Can you copy this trader?

plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

ClearEdge per dollar3.7%
Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
ClearMarkets traded942
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration33.9% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)98.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration26.6% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026? · No0.8690.905$8.4k+$335.63
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No0.7860.825$7.7k+$361.57
Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31? · No0.7030.770$2.3k+$197.55
Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats? · Yes0.2300.255$1.1k+$108.70
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by March 31, 2027? · No0.7100.765$1.1k+$76.69
Will Russia capture Kozacha Lopan by December 31, 2026? · No0.5700.825$923.01+$285.62
Will Ukraine re-enter Terny by December 31, 2026? · No0.6770.640$804.95−$47.05
Iran full airspace closure by December 31? · No0.7500.630$777.00−$148.00
Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? · No0.5330.925$762.36+$322.86
Will Russia enter Khatnie by December 31, 2026? · No0.6830.780$716.65+$88.66
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026? · No0.6660.715$652.44+$44.93
Will Russia capture the Royal Café Alex in Kostyantynivka by March 31, 2027? · Yes0.5340.645$638.29+$109.29
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2027? · No0.5230.475$620.06−$63.40
Will Russia enter Zaporizhia by June 30, 2027? · No0.8000.885$530.50+$51.17
Ukraine coup attempt by December 31, 2026? · No0.9490.967$464.55+$8.55

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-30 09:43Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by December 31?BUY0.6141402431$370.00
10-30 09:42Will Russia capture Novyi Donbas by October 31?SELL0.9640282051$751.94
10-29 21:40Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?BUY0.6966327653$103.00
10-29 21:39Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?BUY0.5199999998$354.00
10-29 17:09Will Republicans lose the Alaska, Iowa, Kansas, Maine, Michigan, Ohio, and Texas Senate seats?BUY0.23$1.0k
10-29 13:22Will Trump say "Job" 20+ times during his Midterm Rally in South Carolina?BUY0.2995404862$200.00
10-29 13:21Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?BUY0.7465119871$580.00
10-28 15:07Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?SELL0.79$316.00
10-28 12:11Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31?BUY0.7209297663$1000.00
10-28 11:54Will Trump say "America First" during his Midterm Rally in Ohio?BUY0.1014896455$68.00
10-28 11:52Will Trump say "Ass" during his Midterm Rally in Ohio?BUY0.2314955079$156.00
10-28 01:25Will Russia capture Vodianske by December 31?BUY0.5199999994$161.00
10-28 01:20EU country blames Russia for new sabotage attack by December 31?BUY0.2232385086$180.00
10-28 01:16NATO downs another Russian drone before Russia x Ukraine peace talks?BUY0.6358833886$200.00
10-27 09:27Will Russia invade another country in 2026?BUY0.95$3.0k