PolyArbi
0x15f640495cf23010380a34863bc94239584ee3f8
- Realised P&L
- $249.15
- Volume
- $88.8k
- Markets traded
- 588
- Open portfolio
- $5.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded588
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration44.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration4.6% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$688.69at 0.202Will Giovanni Nappi win the 2026 Casalnuovo Di Napoli mayoral election?
- +$273.63at 0.291Will Chile win on 2026-06-09?
- +$198.90at 0.316Will Floriana Natale win the 2026 San Giovanni Rotondo mayoral election?
- +$129.00at 0.284Will Canada be the highest-scoring team in Group B during the Group Stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$122.49at 0.183Will Marine Le Pen be the National Rally’s candidate for the 2027 French Presidential election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 23:20 | Will the Republican Party win the MA-03 House seat? | BUY | 0.024 | $1.08 |
| 08-02 23:20 | Will the Democratic Party win the MA-03 House seat? | BUY | 0.944257149 | $42.75 |
| 08-02 23:14 | Will the Republican Party win the WY-AL House seat? | SELL | 0.938 | $22.61 |
| 08-02 23:05 | Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2? | BUY | 0.95 | $38.00 |
| 08-02 23:05 | Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2? | BUY | 0.0477502921 | $2.84 |
| 08-02 23:04 | Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-06 House seat? | SELL | 0.94 | $67.87 |
| 08-02 23:04 | Will the Republican Party win the NJ-06 House seat? | SELL | 0.058 | $4.06 |
| 08-02 22:53 | Will John Braun earn the most votes in the WA-03 primary? | BUY | 0.85 | $8.50 |
| 08-02 22:53 | Will Marie Gluesenkamp Perez earn the most votes in the WA-03 primary? | BUY | 0.133 | $0.00 |
| 08-02 21:55 | Will Volker Bajus win the next Osnabrück mayoral election? | BUY | 0.128 | $3.97 |
| 08-02 21:55 | Will Robert Alferink win the next Osnabrück mayoral election? | BUY | 0.3192645161 | $9.90 |
| 08-02 21:55 | Will Katharina Pötter win the next Osnabrück mayoral election? | BUY | 0.47 | $14.57 |
| 08-02 21:26 | Will The Grammys win Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety special (live)? | SELL | 0.003 | $0.03 |
| 08-02 21:26 | Will The Golden Globes win Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety special (live)? | SELL | 0.004 | $0.08 |
| 08-02 19:06 | Will The Oscars win Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety special (live)? | BUY | 0.1548861314 | $8.49 |