PolyArbi
0x15f640495cf23010380a34863bc94239584ee3f8
- Realised P&L
- $91.74
- Volume
- $125.2k
- Markets traded
- 770
- Open portfolio
- $5.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded770
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration29.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration21.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$682.80at 0.209Will Giovanni Nappi win the 2026 Casalnuovo Di Napoli mayoral election?
- +$270.12at 0.297Will Chile win on 2026-06-09?
- +$252.18at 0.529Will Philadelphia Waterdogs be named the 2026 Premier League Lacrosse Champion?
- +$196.65at 0.324Will Floriana Natale win the 2026 San Giovanni Rotondo mayoral election?
- +$179.15at 0.425Will Luciano Zucco win the Governor of Rio Grande do Sul election?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-25 23:08 | LoL: Gen.G vs LYON (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage | SELL | 0.33 | $1.98 |
| 10-25 22:46 | LoL: Gen.G vs LYON (BO3) - Worlds Group Stage | BUY | 0.18 | $1.08 |
| 10-25 22:10 | Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1? | SELL | 0.999 | $58.94 |
| 10-25 21:31 | Total Kills Over/Under 24.5 in Game 1? | BUY | 0.98 | $14.70 |
| 10-24 20:31 | LoL: LYON vs Karmine Corp (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage | BUY | 0.85 | $17.00 |
| 10-24 17:44 | LoL: CTBC Flying Oyster vs Movistar KOI (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage | BUY | 0.32 | $4.80 |
| 10-23 22:24 | LoL: G2 Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage | SELL | 0.999 | $24.98 |
| 10-23 22:20 | LoL: Team Liquid vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage | SELL | 0.35 | $7.00 |
| 10-23 21:55 | LoL: Team Liquid vs CTBC Flying Oyster (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage | BUY | 0.27 | $5.40 |
| 10-23 21:06 | LoL: G2 Esports vs Dplus KIA (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage | BUY | 0.61 | $15.25 |
| 10-23 20:51 | LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Karmine Corp (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage | SELL | 0.999 | $14.98 |
| 10-23 20:22 | LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Karmine Corp (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage | SELL | 0.43 | $12.90 |
| 10-23 20:08 | LoL: Anyone's Legend vs Karmine Corp (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage | BUY | 0.34 | $10.20 |
| 10-23 18:00 | LoL: Gen.G vs Invictus Gaming (BO1) - Worlds Group Stage | SELL | 0.999 | $74.92 |
| 10-18 22:19 | Will Kathy Hochul win Nassau County in the New York governor race in 2026? | BUY | 0.3261538462 | $4.24 |