PolyBot

Read-only · no wallet, no orders

Traders

PolyArbi

0x15f640495cf23010380a34863bc94239584ee3f8

Realised P&L
$249.15
Volume
$88.8k
Markets traded
588
Open portfolio
$5.3k

Can you copy this trader?

difficultPossible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded588
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration44.6% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)36.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
ClearOpen concentration4.6% in top position
Open risk is spread across several positions.

Largest open positions

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
08-02 23:20Will the Republican Party win the MA-03 House seat?BUY0.024$1.08
08-02 23:20Will the Democratic Party win the MA-03 House seat?BUY0.944257149$42.75
08-02 23:14Will the Republican Party win the WY-AL House seat?SELL0.938$22.61
08-02 23:05Will there be exactly 1 earthquake of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?BUY0.95$38.00
08-02 23:05Will there be exactly 2 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from July 27 - August 2?BUY0.0477502921$2.84
08-02 23:04Will the Democratic Party win the NJ-06 House seat?SELL0.94$67.87
08-02 23:04Will the Republican Party win the NJ-06 House seat?SELL0.058$4.06
08-02 22:53Will John Braun earn the most votes in the WA-03 primary?BUY0.85$8.50
08-02 22:53Will Marie Gluesenkamp Perez earn the most votes in the WA-03 primary?BUY0.133$0.00
08-02 21:55Will Volker Bajus win the next Osnabrück mayoral election?BUY0.128$3.97
08-02 21:55Will Robert Alferink win the next Osnabrück mayoral election?BUY0.3192645161$9.90
08-02 21:55Will Katharina Pötter win the next Osnabrück mayoral election?BUY0.47$14.57
08-02 21:26Will The Grammys win Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety special (live)?SELL0.003$0.03
08-02 21:26Will The Golden Globes win Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety special (live)?SELL0.004$0.08
08-02 19:06Will The Oscars win Emmys 2026: Outstanding variety special (live)?BUY0.1548861314$8.49