43rdst
0x15ad03d2d22bdbedf99c7e7168cbc627d9abdcbf
- Realised P&L
- $-10.31
- Volume
- $390.17
- Markets traded
- 15
- Open portfolio
- $65.69
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded15
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)25.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration26.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Republican Party win the KY-04 House seat? · Yes | 0.900 | 0.915 | $17.39 | +$0.28 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the WI-01 House seat? · No | 0.574 | 0.635 | $10.79 | +$1.03 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the MI-08 House seat? · Yes | 0.790 | 0.875 | $10.59 | +$1.03 |
| Will the Republican Party win the MN-08 House seat? · Yes | 0.720 | 0.885 | $7.08 | +$1.32 |
| Will the Republican Party win the OH-09 House seat? · No | 0.610 | 0.680 | $6.12 | +$0.63 |
| Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.340 | $3.40 | +$0.80 |
| Will the Republican Party win the OH-14 House seat? · Yes | 0.860 | 0.885 | $2.65 | +$0.07 |
| Will the Republican Party win the NY-23 House seat? · Yes | 0.830 | 0.835 | $2.50 | +$0.01 |
| Will the Republican Party win the GA-11 House seat? · Yes | 0.870 | 0.905 | $1.81 | +$0.07 |
| Will the Democrats win the New Mexico governor race in 2026? · Yes | 0.870 | 0.900 | $1.80 | +$0.06 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the AL-02 House seat? · Yes | 0.910 | 0.310 | $1.55 | −$3.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.14at 0.770Will the Democratic Party win the CA-27 House seat?
- +$-0.05at 0.900Will the Democratic Party win the KY-04 House seat?
- +$-4.10at 0.285Lakers vs. Rockets
- +$-15.65at 0.224Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-08 02:01 | Will the Democratic Party win the WI-01 House seat? | BUY | 0.58 | $1.74 |
| 04-08 01:53 | Will the Democratic Party win the WI-01 House seat? | BUY | 0.58 | $2.32 |
| 04-08 01:42 | Will the Democratic Party win the WI-01 House seat? | BUY | 0.57 | $2.85 |
| 04-08 01:41 | Will the Democratic Party win the WI-01 House seat? | BUY | 0.57 | $2.85 |
| 04-08 01:41 | Will the Republican Party win the MN-08 House seat? | BUY | 0.72 | $2.88 |
| 04-07 22:34 | Will the Democratic Party win the MI-08 House seat? | BUY | 0.79 | $0.08 |
| 04-07 22:15 | Will the Democratic Party win the MI-08 House seat? | BUY | 0.79 | $7.11 |
| 04-07 21:39 | Will the Democratic Party win the MI-08 House seat? | BUY | 0.79 | $2.37 |
| 04-06 20:50 | Will the Republican Party win the NY-23 House seat? | BUY | 0.83 | $2.49 |
| 04-06 03:37 | Will the Republican Party win the MN-08 House seat? | BUY | 0.72 | $2.88 |
| 04-06 03:14 | Will the Republican Party win the GA-11 House seat? | BUY | 0.87 | $1.74 |
| 04-06 02:57 | Will the Democratic Party win the CA-27 House seat? | SELL | 0.896119951 | $43.93 |
| 04-06 01:58 | Will the Democratic Party win the CA-27 House seat? | SELL | 0.93 | $0.91 |
| 04-05 23:21 | Will the Republican Party win the OH-14 House seat? | BUY | 0.86 | $2.58 |
| 04-05 21:25 | Will the Democratic Party win the CA-27 House seat? | SELL | 0.93 | $4.65 |