PMTraderAdam
0x154794795d978c5890b3f69264311f0bd966d066
- Realised P&L
- $34.3k
- Volume
- $2.81M
- Markets traded
- 1,387
- Open portfolio
- $49.0k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.2%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- CautionMarkets traded1,387
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration14.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)94.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration13.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.7kat 0.911US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026?
- +$1.2kat 0.723Will DraftKings launch a prediction market in 2025?
- +$1.2kat 0.340Will Meghan Frank be the next CEO of Lululemon?
- +$1.1kat 0.757Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?
- +$891.21at 0.444DeepSeek V4 released by April 15?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-14 16:07 | Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $225B by December 31? | BUY | 0.6769354407 | $303.66 |
| 10-06 14:22 | Next Astra Model (6.1+) released by October 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.86 | $86.00 |
| 10-04 02:10 | Will "East of Eden: Limited Series" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? | BUY | 0.860625 | $275.40 |
| 10-04 00:54 | Will "The Widower: 'Til Death Do Us Part" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? | BUY | 0.9263666545 | $481.33 |
| 09-27 20:39 | Will Eric Trump post about $LAPTOP by September 30? | BUY | 0.9640832535 | $865.38 |
| 09-26 21:46 | Will Predict.fun launch a token by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.995 | $843.80 |
| 09-24 04:32 | Will ByteDance's valuation hit (LOW) $500B by December 31? | BUY | 0.5855346612 | $52.62 |
| 09-23 16:29 | Iran full airspace closure by September 30? | BUY | 0.970835 | $194.17 |
| 09-22 18:52 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by March 31, 2027? | SELL | 0.0332058 | $19.92 |
| 09-22 18:52 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.0497501219 | $27.56 |
| 09-22 18:52 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.063818 | $25.53 |
| 09-22 02:39 | Will Sundar Pichai attend the White House state dinner for Xi Jinping? | BUY | 0.8145454545 | $44.80 |
| 09-22 02:35 | Will Sam Altman attend the White House state dinner for Xi Jinping? | BUY | 0.9895429591 | $196.83 |
| 09-22 02:26 | Will Satya Nadella attend the White House state dinner for Xi Jinping? | BUY | 0.87 | $316.92 |
| 09-21 06:25 | US x Iran diplomatic meeting by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.88 | $352.00 |