leiond
0x1540df65c12eccbe2bc43d0491478ee732d65204
- Realised P&L
- $5.31
- Volume
- $1.7k
- Markets traded
- 20
- Open portfolio
- $213.13
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded20
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration30.4% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample17 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration46.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will US unemployment reach at least 10.0% in 2026? · No | 0.983 | 0.981 | $99.03 | −$0.25 |
| Will the Democratic Party win the MI-11 House seat? · Yes | 0.956 | 0.938 | $66.56 | −$1.31 |
| Will the Republican Party win the VA-09 House seat? · Yes | 0.942 | 0.932 | $47.53 | −$0.51 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.24at 0.944Jimmy Lai released by June 30?
- +$1.43at 0.958US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31?
- +$1.07at 0.979Will Larry Ellison buy the Seattle Seahawks?
- +$0.92at 0.982Will Norway win the 2026 IIHF World Championship?
- +$0.64at 0.966Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-26 05:37 | US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? | SELL | 0.986 | $31.07 |
| 04-09 08:19 | Will Real Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? | BUY | 0.966 | $19.32 |