0x1540a66cD00f73eeAbA7e034B0830Db9DB784ec9-1767521605101
0x1540a66cd00f73eeaba7e034b0830db9db784ec9
- Realised P&L
- $80.30
- Volume
- $3.3k
- Markets traded
- 240
- Open portfolio
- $51.72
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.5%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded240
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration65.2% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration64.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? · Yes | 0.325 | 0.105 | $33.18 | −$69.56 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026? · Yes | 0.723 | 0.945 | $7.53 | +$1.77 |
| Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? · Yes | 0.462 | 0.635 | $5.50 | +$1.50 |
| Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026? · Yes | 0.836 | 0.855 | $3.07 | +$0.07 |
| Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? · Yes | 0.809 | 0.992 | $2.45 | +$0.45 |
| Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$68.02at 0.382Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of August 2026?
- +$10.65at 0.673Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?
- +$6.36at 0.723Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?
- +$5.73at 0.658Will Apple be the second-largest company in the world by market cap on August 31?
- +$3.86at 0.738Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-26 00:42 | Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.1199999904 | $1.00 |
| 09-26 00:12 | Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.1199999904 | $1.00 |
| 09-25 07:01 | Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026? | SELL | 0.9 | $23.46 |
| 09-24 15:08 | Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.1699999983 | $1.00 |
| 09-23 11:21 | Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.1622498472 | $1.00 |
| 09-23 11:20 | Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.16 | $1.00 |
| 09-22 22:03 | Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.1699999983 | $1.00 |
| 09-22 14:37 | Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.1899999962 | $1.00 |
| 09-21 07:25 | Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.219999978 | $1.00 |
| 09-19 06:32 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | SELL | 0.978 | $3.34 |
| 09-19 06:31 | Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.1899999962 | $1.00 |
| 09-18 07:53 | Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.1699999983 | $1.00 |
| 09-18 07:50 | Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.1799999856 | $1.00 |
| 09-17 09:24 | Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.1899999962 | $1.00 |
| 09-16 08:06 | Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.1899999962 | $1.00 |