PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0x1540a66cD00f73eeAbA7e034B0830Db9DB784ec9-1767521605101

0x1540a66cd00f73eeaba7e034b0830db9db784ec9

Realised P&L
$80.30
Volume
$3.3k
Markets traded
240
Open portfolio
$51.72

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

CautionEdge per dollar2.5%
Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
ClearMarkets traded240
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
BlockerProfit concentration65.2% from one position
Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)56.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration64.1% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026? · Yes0.3250.105$33.18−$69.56
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of September 2026? · Yes0.7230.945$7.53+$1.77
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of October 2026? · Yes0.4620.635$5.50+$1.50
Will Anthropic have the best AI Agent at the end of October 2026? · Yes0.8360.855$3.07+$0.07
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on September 30? · Yes0.8090.992$2.45+$0.45
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? · Yes0.2000.000$0.00−$1.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
09-26 00:42Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?BUY0.1199999904$1.00
09-26 00:12Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?BUY0.1199999904$1.00
09-25 07:01Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of September 2026?SELL0.9$23.46
09-24 15:08Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?BUY0.1699999983$1.00
09-23 11:21Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?BUY0.1622498472$1.00
09-23 11:20Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?BUY0.16$1.00
09-22 22:03Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?BUY0.1699999983$1.00
09-22 14:37Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?BUY0.1899999962$1.00
09-21 07:25Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?BUY0.219999978$1.00
09-19 06:32Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026?SELL0.978$3.34
09-19 06:31Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?BUY0.1899999962$1.00
09-18 07:53Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?BUY0.1699999983$1.00
09-18 07:50Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?BUY0.1799999856$1.00
09-17 09:24Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?BUY0.1899999962$1.00
09-16 08:06Will Moonshot be the second-best Chinese AI company at the end of September 2026?BUY0.1899999962$1.00