the5season
0x1500a00081baf0a34d80e67d72848ca41387d35a
- Realised P&L
- $372.04
- Volume
- $39.3k
- Markets traded
- 58
- Open portfolio
- $4.3k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.9%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded58
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration10.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)90.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.968 | 0.985 | $1.5k | +$23.87 |
| Will Bitcoin hit $100k by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.830 | 0.725 | $698.14 | −$101.11 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.945 | 0.969 | $537.51 | +$13.04 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.981 | 0.987 | $493.25 | +$2.75 |
| Will China unban Bitcoin by 2027? · No | 0.958 | 0.983 | $419.57 | +$10.72 |
| Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.966 | 0.981 | $345.14 | +$5.10 |
| Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.975 | 0.984 | $196.70 | +$1.70 |
| Will Satoshi's identity be revealed by December 31? · No | 0.980 | 0.979 | $97.85 | −$0.15 |
| Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? · Yes | 0.288 | 0.415 | $41.48 | +$12.68 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$65.03at 0.616Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$59.88at 0.939Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.2% in 2025?
- +$58.25at 0.676Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 by December 31, 2026?
- +$58.00at 0.640Will Bitcoin hit $100k by September 30, 2027?
- +$44.15at 0.498Will Trump visit China by March 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-02 12:22 | Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.969 | $1.1k |
| 10-01 14:13 | Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.945 | $524.47 |
| 09-29 00:18 | Will Bitcoin reach $120,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $171.94 |
| 09-01 01:36 | Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.967 | $232.08 |
| 08-25 05:50 | Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.966 | $340.03 |
| 08-25 05:43 | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | BUY | 0.954 | $95.40 |
| 08-16 09:31 | Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6599999986 | $118.56 |
| 06-20 17:04 | Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.96 | $1.1k |
| 06-16 02:14 | Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $9.30 |
| 06-16 02:13 | Bitcoin all time high by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.97 | $243.60 |
| 06-16 02:12 | Will Bitcoin outperform Gold in 2026? | BUY | 0.2699999904 | $20.00 |
| 06-16 02:10 | Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.987 | $493.50 |
| 06-16 02:07 | Will Bitcoin hit $150k by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.94 | $940.00 |
| 05-14 16:08 | Will Bitcoin reach $200,000 by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.958 | $479.00 |
| 05-09 15:50 | China x Japan military clash before 2027? | SELL | 0.9 | $90.00 |