0x14b6E11b4eaf4AED0E1A4C35ff925e3b6f789E5A-1769423126395
0x14b6e11b4eaf4aed0e1a4c35ff925e3b6f789e5a
- Realised P&L
- $-29.11
- Volume
- $5.7k
- Markets traded
- 311
- Open portfolio
- $3.60
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded311
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration17.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)70.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration84.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.202 | $3.05 | −$1.95 |
| Will Taylor Swift be the top artist in the US for 2026? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.065 | $0.55 | −$1.07 |
| Seattle Storm vs. Minnesota Lynx · Seattle Storm | 0.340 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.40 |
| Will AT&T (T) Q2 total revenue be above $31.8B? · Yes | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Chicago Cubs vs. New York Mets · New York Mets | 0.300 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.74 |
| Milwaukee Brewers vs. Athletics: O/U 14.5 · Over | 0.530 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.90 |
| Seattle Mariners vs. Baltimore Orioles · Baltimore Orioles | 0.180 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.87 |
| Spurs vs. Knicks · Spurs | 0.840 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Minnesota Twins vs. Detroit Tigers · Detroit Tigers | 0.510 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.67 |
| Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Arizona Diamondbacks · Los Angeles Dodgers | 0.630 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$7.70 |
| Will Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27? · No | 0.480 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.75 |
| Spread: Spurs (-5.5) · Spurs | 0.500 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.83 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.94at 0.460Spread: Tampa Bay Rays (-2.5)
- +$6.15at 0.547Seattle Mariners vs. Detroit Tigers
- +$3.97at 0.537Cincinnati Reds vs. St. Louis Cardinals: O/U 9.5
- +$3.62at 0.736Boston Red Sox vs. Tampa Bay Rays
- +$3.17at 0.610Spurs vs. Knicks: O/U 219.5
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-24 19:15 | Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1540 by December 31? | BUY | 0.33 | $5.00 |
| 07-24 18:22 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31? | BUY | 0.9 | $5.46 |
| 07-24 17:58 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL | 0.993 | $1.38 |
| 07-24 16:21 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | SELL | 0.993 | $10.34 |
| 07-16 18:00 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? | BUY | 0.99 | $4.34 |
| 07-16 04:08 | Will Taylor Swift be the top artist in the US for 2026? | BUY | 0.1899999226 | $1.62 |
| 07-14 10:14 | Will Europe Win the WSOP Main Event | SELL | 0.0907407407 | $1.22 |
| 07-13 09:49 | Will the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be between 2.8% and 3.0%? | SELL | 0.717 | $1.89 |
| 07-13 09:48 | Will the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be between 2.8% and 3.0%? | SELL | 0.717 | $1.29 |
| 07-13 09:48 | Will the 10-year Japanese government bond yield on the last reported day of 2026 be between 2.8% and 3.0%? | SELL | 0.716 | $1.61 |
| 07-12 08:50 | Will Elmedin Konaković be the next Chairman of the Council of Ministers of Bosnia and Herzegovina? | SELL | 0.2 | $1.52 |
| 07-12 08:07 | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31? | SELL | 0.41 | $2.16 |
| 07-12 08:04 | Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.58 | $7.18 |
| 07-11 19:29 | Will the US announce a blockade on Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.5899999887 | $3.12 |
| 07-10 21:27 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by August 18, 2026? | BUY | 0.91 | $9.99 |