0x146d83610a4549387edabdbb69c6d06c3aab4379
0x146d83610a4549387edabdbb69c6d06c3aab4379
- Realised P&L
- $-22.98
- Volume
- $189.58
- Markets traded
- 21
- Open portfolio
- $30.26
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-12.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded21
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration60.6% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)16.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration40.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026? · Yes | 0.264 | 0.801 | $12.15 | +$8.15 |
| Will United Russia win between 340 and 354 seats in the next Russian State Duma election? · Yes | 0.290 | 0.965 | $9.98 | +$6.98 |
| Will "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office be at least 70m? · No | 0.763 | 1.000 | $3.18 | +$0.75 |
| Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027? · No | 0.500 | 0.645 | $1.18 | +$0.27 |
| Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 22, 2026? · Yes | 0.780 | 0.845 | $1.08 | +$0.08 |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? · No | 0.918 | 0.958 | $1.04 | +$0.04 |
| Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? · Yes | 0.428 | 0.426 | $1.00 | −$0.00 |
| Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? · Yes | 0.560 | 0.565 | $0.62 | +$0.01 |
| Will "Practical Magic 2" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 12m and 13m? · No | 0.950 | 0.009 | $0.03 | −$2.97 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.29at 0.572Detroit Tigers vs. Chicago White Sox: O/U 5.5
- +$1.49at 0.827Will Racing Club de Lens win on 2026-09-18?
- +$-0.06at 0.748Will Anthropic's valuation hit (HIGH) $3.0T by December 31?
- +$-0.12at 0.077Will OpenAI’s valuation be less than $600B at the end of October 2026?
- +$-0.28at 0.885Will "Resident Evil" Opening Weekend Box Office be less than 70m?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-22 02:45 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released by September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 09-22 02:41 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.763999945 | $1.00 |
| 09-22 02:38 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.7629999939 | $1.00 |
| 09-22 02:38 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.7629999939 | $1.00 |
| 09-21 20:41 | Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | SELL | 0.55 | $0.03 |
| 09-21 20:16 | Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | SELL | 0.55 | $0.34 |
| 09-21 17:32 | Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | SELL | 0.55 | $0.01 |
| 09-21 17:30 | Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY | 0.559999776 | $1.00 |
| 09-21 17:30 | Will Nithya Raman win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? | BUY | 0.4279999264 | $1.00 |
| 09-21 17:08 | Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.54 | $0.09 |
| 09-21 17:02 | Will the next Grok model (4.7+) debut at a score of at least 1450 by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.00 |
| 09-21 14:25 | Will the next Claude Opus model be released on September 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.0889999925 | $1.00 |
| 09-21 05:44 | Will OpenAI’s valuation be less than $600B at the end of October 2026? | SELL | 0.005 | $0.00 |
| 09-21 02:48 | Will OpenAI’s valuation be less than $600B at the end of October 2026? | SELL | 0.072 | $0.64 |
| 09-21 02:31 | Will OpenAI’s valuation be less than $600B at the end of October 2026? | BUY | 0.074 | $0.71 |