0x143D75356e10590FD6298ed6b7fC9749570fBB5B-1760530155071
0x143d75356e10590fd6298ed6b7fc9749570fbb5b
- Realised P&L
- $-129.13
- Volume
- $3.7k
- Markets traded
- 54
- Open portfolio
- $22.44
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-3.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded54
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample46 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.2%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration42.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolás Maduro released from custody by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.045 | $9.47 | −$30.53 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.122 | $6.13 | −$3.88 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.330 | 0.155 | $5.17 | −$5.83 |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.024 | $1.68 | −$13.32 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? · Yes | 0.268 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? · Yes | 0.920 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$77.61 |
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? · Yes | 0.669 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
| US forces enter Iran by December 31? · No | 0.370 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$16.31 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$12.19at 0.640Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
- +$10.80at 0.269Will Trump visit China by March 31?
- +$9.29at 0.540Israel strikes Iran by March 31, 2026?
- +$6.30at 0.311Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March?
- +$5.50at 0.420US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-15 09:41 | Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? | BUY | 0.9199999995 | $77.61 |
| 04-06 08:42 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $140 in April? | BUY | 0.2599998648 | $0.94 |
| 04-06 08:42 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $120 in April? | BUY | 0.6599999842 | $9.73 |
| 04-01 22:13 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SELL | 0.77 | $72.19 |
| 03-27 12:24 | US forces enter Iran by March 31? | SELL | 0.83 | $16.48 |
| 03-19 21:01 | US forces enter Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.3699999864 | $16.31 |
| 03-19 20:58 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | SELL | 0.507 | $16.30 |
| 03-12 10:11 | US forces enter Iran by March 31? | BUY | 0.75 | $14.90 |
| 03-12 09:13 | Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $105 by end of March? | BUY | 0.3109999867 | $10.00 |
| 03-05 14:56 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET | BUY | 0.4190048207 | $0.97 |
| 03-05 14:51 | Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET | BUY | 0.089999919 | $1.00 |
| 03-03 13:41 | Will Trump visit China by March 31? | SELL | 0.4505031025 | $26.86 |
| 02-22 00:05 | Will Trump visit China by March 31? | BUY | 0.2694805615 | $16.07 |
| 02-22 00:03 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | SELL | 0.41 | $14.05 |
| 02-03 19:09 | US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.2099998677 | $1.00 |