liveMeta
0x141d096009b2a97238059cf7a826e466af6bfe86
- Realised P&L
- $-421.64
- Volume
- $33.9k
- Markets traded
- 26
- Open portfolio
- $516.88
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded26
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample17 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration87.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? · No | 0.870 | 0.905 | $452.50 | +$17.50 |
| Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.5% before 2027? · Yes | 0.101 | 0.081 | $64.38 | −$15.90 |
| GPT-5.6 released by July 10, 2026? · No | 0.172 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$340.01 |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.281 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$202.32 |
| Will Trump say "Fed" or "Federal Reserve" during cabinet meeting? · Yes | 0.690 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$138.00 |
| Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026? · No | 0.441 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$75.35 |
| Will Team Yandex win the EWC Dota 2 Tournament · Yes | 0.296 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$236.80 |
| Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 2, 2026? · No | 0.380 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.07 |
| Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31? · No | 0.170 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$550.19 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$455.56at 0.180US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
- +$425.67at 0.512 Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30?
- +$413.00at 0.410Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?
- +$349.85at 0.300Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
- +$262.14at 0.738Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 00:57 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.87 | $435.00 |
| 08-28 16:32 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.67287 | $53.83 |
| 08-28 16:30 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 1, 2026? | BUY | 0.4410535558 | $75.35 |
| 08-28 16:28 | Next Mythos-Class Model released by September 2, 2026? | BUY | 0.38 | $100.07 |
| 08-28 15:53 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August? | SELL | 0.031 | $28.48 |
| 08-13 15:40 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.29 | $145.00 |
| 08-13 13:28 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August? | BUY | 0.29 | $116.00 |
| 08-13 13:27 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.96030592 | $480.15 |
| 08-06 08:17 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in August? | BUY | 0.2 | $103.75 |
| 08-02 17:17 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.59 | $295.00 |
| 07-31 13:43 | Will Trump say "Fed" or "Federal Reserve" during cabinet meeting? | BUY | 0.69 | $125.40 |
| 07-27 14:42 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.728 | $364.00 |
| 07-15 07:41 | Will Team Yandex win the EWC Dota 2 Tournament | BUY | 0.27 | $75.60 |
| 07-15 07:39 | Will Argentina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.195 | $200.85 |
| 07-14 14:31 | Will Team Yandex win the EWC Dota 2 Tournament | BUY | 0.31 | $161.20 |