waterstar
0x14010a5b86f08d7c27d45d693e5d4d43163d1eac
- Realised P&L
- $-17.39
- Volume
- $3.1k
- Markets traded
- 10
- Open portfolio
- $310.80
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded10
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- CautionSettled sample2 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)0.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration35.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.278 | 0.275 | $111.38 | −$1.37 |
| Will the Democrats win the Michigan Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.700 | 0.785 | $44.82 | +$4.85 |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.265 | $30.63 | −$6.36 |
| Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.630 | 0.395 | $29.47 | −$17.53 |
| Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.275 | $28.35 | −$4.64 |
| Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.147 | 0.055 | $24.48 | −$40.97 |
| Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.590 | 0.535 | $21.77 | −$2.24 |
| Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.030 | 0.030 | $19.90 | −$0.30 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$-5.23at 0.129Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026?
- +$-12.16at 0.431Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-29 13:20 | Will the Republicans win the Ohio Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $32.99 |
| 10-29 13:18 | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.32 | $36.99 |
| 10-20 04:21 | Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.59 | $24.01 |
| 10-20 04:19 | Will the Republicans win the Kansas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.63 | $47.00 |
| 10-13 12:08 | Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.12 | $46.56 |
| 10-06 13:40 | Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.14 | $18.20 |
| 10-06 13:38 | Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.27 | $17.55 |
| 10-05 03:53 | Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.031 | $0.15 |
| 10-05 03:52 | Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.15 | $39.75 |
| 10-05 03:49 | Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.43 | $58.91 |
| 10-05 03:48 | Will Dan Sullivan win the Alaska Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.28 | $67.20 |
| 10-04 09:42 | Will the Republicans win the Georgia Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.0302859828 | $15.31 |
| 10-04 09:36 | Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.15 | $7.50 |
| 10-04 09:35 | Will the Republicans win the Minnesota Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.12 | $6.00 |
| 10-04 09:31 | Will the Republicans win the Maine Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.41 | $41.00 |