0x3545...3154
0x13e4bf768f4c2005af84d9f23c670ac0bc788b89
- Realised P&L
- $38.1k
- Volume
- $1.98M
- Markets traded
- 1,655
- Open portfolio
- $122.54
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.9%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- CautionMarkets traded1,655
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration31.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration79.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · No | 0.193 | 0.212 | $96.95 | +$8.95 |
| Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.210 | 0.215 | $25.59 | +$0.60 |
| Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-10-18? · No | 0.010 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Grêmio FBPA win on 2026-10-18? · Yes | 0.016 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$8.60 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.7kat 0.141Will EC Juventude win on 2026-09-05?
- +$1.4kat 0.231Spread: Switzerland (-2.5)
- +$1.2kat 0.110Will EC Vitória win on 2026-09-13?
- +$1.2kat 0.015Red Bull Bragantino vs. SC Internacional: O/U 3.5
- +$933.09at 0.490Spread: Colombia (-1.5)
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-18 22:19 | Will Grêmio Novorizontino win on 2026-10-18? | BUY | 0.22 | $5.50 |
| 10-18 21:44 | Will Estudiantes de La Plata win on 2026-10-18? | BUY | 0.4848459648 | $384.80 |
| 10-18 21:40 | Will Grêmio Novorizontino win on 2026-10-18? | BUY | 0.67 | $914.12 |
| 10-18 21:39 | Will Grêmio Novorizontino win on 2026-10-18? | BUY | 0.34 | $499.95 |
| 10-18 20:55 | Will Águilas Doradas Rionegro win on 2026-10-18? | BUY | 0.29 | $10.00 |
| 10-18 19:39 | Will Cruzeiro EC win on 2026-10-18? | BUY | 0.6 | $112.50 |
| 10-18 19:37 | Will Danubio FC win on 2026-10-18? | BUY | 0.3634290108 | $35.45 |
| 10-18 19:08 | Will Racing Club win on 2026-10-18? | SELL | 0.538572776 | $639.51 |
| 10-18 19:08 | Will Racing Club win on 2026-10-18? | BUY | 0.5012179608 | $479.09 |
| 10-18 18:47 | Will Danubio FC win on 2026-10-18? | BUY | 0.41 | $12.42 |
| 10-18 18:47 | Will Danubio FC win on 2026-10-18? | BUY | 0.4 | $4.00 |
| 10-18 18:03 | Will CD Eldense win on 2026-10-18? | BUY | 0.19 | $0.10 |
| 10-18 14:40 | Will Granada CF win on 2026-10-18? | BUY | 0.53 | $123.41 |
| 10-18 14:20 | Will SS Juve Stabia win on 2026-10-18? | BUY | 0.8047185709 | $71.63 |
| 10-18 13:34 | Will AD Ceuta FC win on 2026-10-18? | BUY | 0.01 | $5.00 |