Mudskipper471
0x1373e586fb35d80c1249ea91d2f0012dadc6b963
- Realised P&L
- $-3.14
- Volume
- $101.0k
- Markets traded
- 30
- Open portfolio
- $4.98
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded30
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample28 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)85.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by September 30? · No | 0.989 | 0.985 | $4.98 | −$0.02 |
| Semtech (SMTC) Up or Down After Earnings? · Down | 0.980 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.53 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.15at 0.979Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026?
- +$0.10at 0.970Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026?
- +$0.07at 0.990Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on April 9?
- +$0.07at 0.950Taylor Swift engaged in 2024?
- +$0.06at 0.992Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of March 16 above $2.50?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-12 03:47 | U.S. x Russia Nuclear deal by September 30? | BUY | 0.988999999 | $5.00 |
| 09-12 03:47 | Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | SELL | 0.983 | $3.12 |
| 08-05 07:54 | Will Jesus Christ return before 2027? | BUY | 0.9809998193 | $3.11 |
| 07-27 06:51 | Israel x Hamas Ceasefire Phase II by July 31? | BUY | 0.9969999996 | $2.53 |
| 06-15 08:57 | Will Elon Musk post 100-119 tweets from June 16 to June 23, 2026? | BUY | 0.9779999997 | $7.22 |
| 06-15 08:56 | Sam Altman in jail by June 30? | SELL | 0.99 | $4.97 |
| 05-12 16:26 | Sam Altman in jail by June 30? | BUY | 0.9919998566 | $4.98 |
| 04-09 09:37 | Will the price of Solana be between $80 and $90 on April 9? | BUY | 0.9889999997 | $7.17 |
| 03-15 04:18 | Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of March 16 above $2.50? | BUY | 0.991707222 | $7.12 |
| 03-15 04:17 | Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.9831035912 | $7.12 |
| 02-09 11:53 | Will the US officially declare war on Venezuela by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9699999489 | $7.03 |
| 01-30 11:15 | Will the US strike 6 countries in January 2026? | BUY | 0.9939999994 | $6.99 |
| 11-26 09:27 | Semtech (SMTC) Up or Down After Earnings? | BUY | 0.98 | $3.53 |
| 11-26 09:27 | Lee Jun-seok in jail in 2025? | SELL | 0.982 | $3.53 |
| 11-21 09:27 | Lee Jun-seok in jail in 2025? | BUY | 0.977999995 | $3.52 |