seadogtropical
0x12d3cdf9a6c0324c2eb7da3253ebd0522d7753c1
- Realised P&L
- $8.3k
- Volume
- $1.18M
- Markets traded
- 92
- Open portfolio
- $45.00
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded92
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration46.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the U.S. invade Greenland in 2026? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.022 | $45.00 | −$155.00 |
| US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$14.00 |
| Will the U.S. invade Venezuela by January 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.145 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$361.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.6kat 0.707Will Eight die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?
- +$1.9kat 0.726Will Eleven die in "Stranger Things: Season 5"?
- +$1.5kat 0.406Will "Emily in Paris: Season 5" be the #2 global Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)
- +$1.1kat 0.514Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? (December 30, 2025)
- +$713.04at 0.933Will "Run Away" be the #2 US Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026)
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 01-12 20:45 | Will "Evil Influencer: The Jodi Hildebrandt Story" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (January 13, 2026) | BUY | 0.9486940001 | $1.7k |
| 01-12 20:45 | Will "Evil Influencer: The Jodi Hildebrandt Story" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (January 13, 2026) | BUY | 0.95 | $249.85 |
| 01-12 20:45 | Will "Evil Influencer: The Jodi Hildebrandt Story" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (January 13, 2026) | BUY | 0.96 | $28.80 |
| 01-12 20:45 | Will "Evil Influencer: The Jodi Hildebrandt Story" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (January 13, 2026) | BUY | 0.96 | $16.93 |
| 01-12 20:45 | Will "Evil Influencer: The Jodi Hildebrandt Story" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (January 13, 2026) | BUY | 0.9520515575 | $44.32 |
| 01-12 20:44 | Will "People We Meet on Vacation" be the top US Netflix movie this week? (January 13, 2026) | BUY | 0.96 | $91.20 |
| 01-12 20:44 | Will "Evil Influencer: The Jodi Hildebrandt Story" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (January 13, 2026) | BUY | 0.95 | $31.35 |
| 01-12 20:44 | Will "Evil Influencer: The Jodi Hildebrandt Story" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (January 13, 2026) | BUY | 0.96 | $123.84 |
| 01-12 20:43 | Will "Evil Influencer: The Jodi Hildebrandt Story" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (January 13, 2026) | BUY | 0.96 | $5.02 |
| 01-12 20:43 | Will "His & Hers" be the top global Netflix show this week? (January 13, 2026) | BUY | 0.961 | $153.76 |
| 01-12 20:43 | Will "Evil Influencer: The Jodi Hildebrandt Story" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (January 13, 2026) | BUY | 0.95 | $10.45 |
| 01-12 20:42 | Will "Evil Influencer: The Jodi Hildebrandt Story" be the #2 US Netflix movie this week? (January 13, 2026) | BUY | 0.9370591557 | $66.37 |
| 01-12 20:41 | Will "Evil Influencer: The Jodi Hildebrandt Story" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (January 13, 2026) | BUY | 0.95 | $128.88 |
| 01-12 20:41 | Will "Evil Influencer: The Jodi Hildebrandt Story" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (January 13, 2026) | BUY | 0.95 | $9.56 |
| 01-12 20:41 | Will "Evil Influencer: The Jodi Hildebrandt Story" be the #2 global Netflix movie this week? (January 13, 2026) | BUY | 0.95 | $1.0k |