jsjr
0x12bff6ca3cb6cfc950a27b275b795fd84d4dddaf
- Realised P&L
- $-21.5k
- Volume
- $8.57M
- Markets traded
- 535
- Open portfolio
- $1.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded535
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.3% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration44.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? · No | 0.777 | 0.746 | $807.13 | −$34.18 |
| Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by December 31? · Yes | 0.118 | 0.125 | $344.27 | +$18.43 |
| Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? · Yes | 0.107 | 0.065 | $154.98 | −$100.92 |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.212 | 0.115 | $145.77 | −$123.03 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.650 | 0.565 | $118.92 | −$17.91 |
| Iran Nuke before 2027? · Yes | 0.063 | 0.049 | $117.74 | −$34.75 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? · Yes | 0.086 | 0.075 | $70.86 | −$10.66 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.160 | $34.88 | −$6.46 |
| Israel closes its airspace by August 15? · No | 0.746 | 0.905 | $8.28 | +$1.45 |
| Will Trump meet with Giorgia Meloni in July 2026? · No | 0.100 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.50 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$11.7kat 0.501Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by August 31?
- +$9.9kat 0.800Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?
- +$9.9kat 0.904Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?
- +$8.6kat 0.529US military action against Iran before August?
- +$7.3kat 0.208Will Russia capture Pokrovsk train station by October 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-02 17:59 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.828 | $24.84 |
| 08-02 17:59 | Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $10.22 |
| 08-02 00:51 | Israel closes its airspace by August 31? | SELL | 0.31 | $75.62 |
| 08-01 17:00 | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.09 | $14.03 |
| 07-24 12:43 | Israel closes its airspace by July 31? | BUY | 0.65 | $30.76 |
| 07-24 12:42 | Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $61.52 |
| 07-22 14:38 | Israel closes its airspace by August 31? | BUY | 0.39 | $134.38 |
| 07-22 14:38 | Israel closes its airspace by July 31? | BUY | 0.75 | $3.75 |
| 07-22 14:34 | Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.1 | $414.60 |
| 07-22 14:29 | Israel closes its airspace by August 31? | BUY | 0.38 | $36.36 |
| 07-22 14:29 | Israel closes its airspace by July 31? | BUY | 0.76 | $35.09 |
| 07-21 11:43 | Will Russia capture Lyman by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.1904827394 | $61.36 |
| 07-20 15:34 | Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.84 | $0.08 |
| 07-20 15:33 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by September 30? | SELL | 0.28 | $0.05 |
| 07-18 13:07 | Will Russia enter Vasylivka by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6892857143 | $77.20 |