jsjr
0x12bff6ca3cb6cfc950a27b275b795fd84d4dddaf
- Realised P&L
- $-20.4k
- Volume
- $9.04M
- Markets traded
- 614
- Open portfolio
- $1.5k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded614
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration32.0% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)52.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration26.2% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$11.7kat 0.501Will Russia capture Pokrovsk by August 31?
- +$9.9kat 0.800Israel x Hamas ceasefire before July?
- +$9.9kat 0.904Russia x Ukraine ceasefire before July?
- +$8.6kat 0.528US military action against Iran before August?
- +$7.3kat 0.208Will Russia capture Pokrovsk train station by October 31?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11-01 16:51 | Will Russia capture Orikhiv by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.09 | $5.40 |
| 10-28 22:15 | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.037 | $82.63 |
| 10-28 03:49 | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.038 | $9.73 |
| 10-28 03:48 | Will Ethereum reach $3,000 in October? | SELL | 0.993 | $113.43 |
| 10-24 18:38 | Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $328 in October? | BUY | 0.87 | $5.26 |
| 10-24 18:31 | Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $328 in October? | BUY | 0.88 | $7.33 |
| 10-23 13:31 | Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $328 in October? | BUY | 0.91 | $7.55 |
| 10-19 02:53 | Will Apple (AAPL) hit (HIGH) $344 in October? | BUY | 0.9893694798 | $42.79 |
| 10-19 00:51 | Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in October? | BUY | 0.56 | $13.74 |
| 10-19 00:51 | Will Ethereum dip to $2,100 in October? | BUY | 0.79 | $20.09 |
| 10-17 20:02 | Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.06 | $110.53 |
| 10-17 20:01 | Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by June 30, 2027? | BUY | 0.19 | $73.91 |
| 10-17 17:56 | Iran charges Hormuz fees by December 31? | SELL | 0.16 | $16.20 |
| 10-16 13:50 | Will Apple (AAPL) hit (LOW) $328 in October? | BUY | 0.34 | $2.13 |
| 10-16 12:23 | Will Ethereum reach $2,600 in October? | SELL | 0.6 | $31.73 |