0x12993cbeb779cba6ed966f5ee3783c7807896277
0x12993cbeb779cba6ed966f5ee3783c7807896277
- Realised P&L
- $-182.49
- Volume
- $239.0k
- Markets traded
- 116
- Open portfolio
- $1.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded116
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)74.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration66.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.9kat 0.625Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026?
- +$1.4kat 0.180US x Iran ceasefire by April 15?
- +$1.1kat 0.571Will Morocco win on 2026-06-19?
- +$899.45at 0.400US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
- +$827.45at 0.933Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-25 21:57 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.6024932669 | $452.33 |
| 10-25 21:20 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.665982258 | $500.00 |
| 10-24 16:58 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.17 | $212.50 |
| 10-19 16:17 | Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.24 | $300.00 |
| 10-19 16:16 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.84 | $1.2k |
| 10-14 13:28 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.5199999998 | $750.00 |
| 10-04 07:45 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.1196013288 | $120.00 |
| 10-04 07:43 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.639 | $677.38 |
| 09-04 15:21 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.51 | $457.24 |
| 08-25 20:11 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? | BUY | 0.1099999956 | $20.00 |
| 08-19 10:54 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.2899999993 | $260.00 |
| 08-17 10:33 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | BUY | 0.3876834168 | $200.00 |
| 08-15 12:02 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | SELL | 0.1578656789 | $316.25 |
| 08-15 07:01 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.2829999994 | $300.00 |
| 08-12 09:55 | US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended? | BUY | 0.3743887117 | $750.00 |