PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

0x12993cbeb779cba6ed966f5ee3783c7807896277

0x12993cbeb779cba6ed966f5ee3783c7807896277

Realised P&L
$-182.49
Volume
$239.0k
Markets traded
116
Open portfolio
$1.9k

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-0.1%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded116
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
ClearProfit concentration16.7% from one position
Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
ClearSettled sample50 positions
Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
Not knownWin rate (sample)74.0%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration66.0% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · No0.1860.154$1.2k−$258.83
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? · No0.8400.825$491.07−$8.93
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yes0.0410.029$140.35−$63.10
Will Manchester United win the 2026-27 English Premier League (EPL) Championship? · Yes0.1200.004$7.50−$192.50
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? · Yes0.3300.000$0.00−$300.00
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes0.3670.000$0.00−$500.00
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026? · Yes0.5900.000$0.00−$707.85
Will Argentina win on 2026-07-11? · Yes0.5800.000$0.00−$500.00
Lionel Messi: 1+ goals · Yes0.3500.000$0.00−$100.00
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? · Yes0.1700.000$0.00−$4.00
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? · Yes0.2620.000$0.00−$310.00
US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? · Yes0.1200.000$0.00−$120.00
QatarEnergy announces/resumes LNG production in Qatar by April 30? · No0.0850.000$0.00−$499.99
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by August 31? · Yes0.8160.000$0.00−$865.17
US announces end of Iranian blockade by August 31, 2026? · Yes0.3800.000$0.00−$300.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-25 21:57Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?SELL0.6024932669$452.33
10-25 21:20Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.665982258$500.00
10-24 16:58Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?SELL0.17$212.50
10-19 16:17Will Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.24$300.00
10-19 16:16Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?SELL0.84$1.2k
10-14 13:28Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the October 2026 meeting?BUY0.5199999998$750.00
10-04 07:45US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026?BUY0.1196013288$120.00
10-04 07:43Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?SELL0.639$677.38
09-04 15:21Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?SELL0.51$457.24
08-25 20:11Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30?BUY0.1099999956$20.00
08-19 10:54Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?BUY0.2899999993$260.00
08-17 10:33US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?BUY0.3876834168$200.00
08-15 12:02US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?SELL0.1578656789$316.25
08-15 07:01Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?BUY0.2829999994$300.00
08-12 09:55US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?BUY0.3743887117$750.00