lihai
0x127820be85e0e81c5bbc6323c3e338e12f7f9a99
- Realised P&L
- $141.14
- Volume
- $31.6k
- Markets traded
- 26
- Open portfolio
- $1.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded26
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample23 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)95.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration72.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in September? · No | 0.981 | 0.999 | $1.0k | +$17.97 |
| Will Jensen Huang attend the White House state dinner for Xi Jinping? · Yes | 0.996 | 0.964 | $290.37 | −$9.63 |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? · No | 0.989 | 1.000 | $101.06 | +$1.06 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$45.07at 0.979Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2025?
- +$39.91at 0.980Will Bitcoin reach $145,000 in November?
- +$31.87at 0.994Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in August?
- +$16.67at 0.996Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in January?
- +$16.06at 0.996Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-22 08:33 | Will Jensen Huang attend the White House state dinner for Xi Jinping? | BUY | 0.9959635842 | $300.00 |
| 09-20 07:55 | Will Bitcoin reach $86,000 September 14-20? | BUY | 0.995487702 | $2.0k |
| 09-13 07:51 | Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 September 7-13? | BUY | 0.9974922964 | $500.00 |
| 09-12 06:31 | Will Bitcoin reach $82,000 September 7-13? | BUY | 0.9964021572 | $500.00 |
| 09-11 06:08 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $150 in September? | BUY | 0.9808724964 | $1000.00 |
| 09-06 13:43 | Will Bitcoin dip to $76,000 August 31-September 6? | BUY | 0.995 | $500.00 |
| 09-05 11:13 | Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 August 31-September 6? | BUY | 0.989 | $1000.00 |
| 09-05 11:12 | Will the first announced price of the foldable iPhone be at least $2,600? | BUY | 0.9854755883 | $100.00 |
| 08-30 05:58 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | BUY | 0.9889999957 | $100.00 |
| 08-29 06:38 | Will Bitcoin reach $87,500 in August? | BUY | 0.9931963672 | $5.0k |
| 03-16 15:40 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.996 | $176.78 |
| 03-12 10:36 | Will Bitcoin reach $84,000 March 9-15? | BUY | 0.9943865327 | $175.79 |
| 03-12 10:32 | Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in March? | BUY | 0.996 | $4.0k |
| 02-08 13:48 | Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in February? | BUY | 0.997 | $3.0k |
| 02-08 13:47 | Will Bitcoin reach $125,000 in February? | BUY | 0.995 | $100.00 |