0x1241399eE9788aB69ED0F60DFC76B72334876Ec9-1772090947523
0x1241399ee9788ab69ed0f60dfc76b72334876ec9
- Realised P&L
- $14.97
- Volume
- $198.79
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $1.10
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar7.5%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration44.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)86.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will there be a Hormuz agreement, oil below $80, and the Republicans win the Senate? · Yes | 0.031 | 0.032 | $1.10 | +$0.02 |
| Estoril Open: Luca Van Assche vs Hugo Gaston · Hugo Gaston | 0.390 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.83 |
| Will Finland win Eurovision 2026? · Yes | 0.452 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.17 |
| GPT-5.3 released by February 28, 2026? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$6.60 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$14.93at 0.361Washington Mystics vs. Los Angeles Sparks
- +$10.95at 0.467Spurs vs. Knicks
- +$2.44at 0.597Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30?
- +$1.75at 0.686Will Liverpool FC win on 2026-04-25?
- +$1.05at 0.932Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-16 22:01 | Will there be a Hormuz agreement, oil below $80, and the Republicans win the Senate? | BUY | 0.0309999997 | $1.08 |
| 09-28 01:00 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 15, 2026? | BUY | 0.83999997 | $2.24 |
| 09-19 11:04 | Will Xi Jinping visit US by September 30? | BUY | 0.9429999955 | $10.20 |
| 08-28 18:03 | Washington Mystics vs. Los Angeles Sparks | BUY | 0.3499999807 | $8.18 |
| 08-16 20:21 | Boston Red Sox vs. Pittsburgh Pirates | BUY | 0.9359999159 | $5.70 |
| 07-25 15:13 | Estoril Open: Luca Van Assche vs Hugo Gaston | BUY | 0.3899999275 | $1.83 |
| 07-12 15:52 | Iran leadership change by July 31? | BUY | 0.9669999985 | $10.34 |
| 06-28 07:18 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? | BUY | 0.9899999021 | $1.82 |
| 06-19 10:55 | Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9319999972 | $14.41 |
| 06-12 22:00 | Spurs vs. Knicks | BUY | 0.5299999892 | $4.41 |
| 06-05 16:59 | Spurs vs. Knicks | BUY | 0.4599999825 | $9.46 |
| 05-30 11:25 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? | BUY | 0.8599997214 | $1.42 |
| 05-27 08:09 | Will Trump restart Project Freedom by May 31? | BUY | 0.9059995832 | $1.90 |
| 05-25 11:32 | US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 25? | BUY | 0.9669999894 | $2.37 |
| 05-24 18:05 | Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-05-30? | BUY | 0.5899999918 | $3.58 |