0x12406DcCf3bd2901Ff09B01Aa3717AFF60541468-1771591252042
0x12406dccf3bd2901ff09b01aa3717aff60541468
- Realised P&L
- $-2.2k
- Volume
- $49.3k
- Markets traded
- 7
- Open portfolio
- $240.69
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded7
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration100.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample1 position
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.121 | 0.026 | $240.69 | −$859.30 |
| Will the US next strike Iran on March 3, 2026 (ET)? · Yes | 0.035 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.026 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$500.00 |
| Will the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)? · Yes | 0.051 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Will the US next strike Iran on March 4, 2026 (ET)? · Yes | 0.037 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$199.92 |
| Will the US next strike Iran on March 5, 2026 (ET)? · Yes | 0.042 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$450.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$4.56at 0.180Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 02-27 11:11 | Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1211107952 | $1.1k |
| 02-27 11:10 | Will the US officially declare war on Iran by March 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0257920098 | $500.00 |
| 02-27 11:02 | Will the US next strike Iran on March 6, 2026 (ET)? | BUY | 0.0506718351 | $100.00 |
| 02-27 11:00 | Will the US next strike Iran on March 3, 2026 (ET)? | BUY | 0.0355254998 | $100.00 |
| 02-27 10:59 | Will the US next strike Iran on March 5, 2026 (ET)? | BUY | 0.0421523294 | $450.00 |
| 02-27 08:55 | Will the US next strike Iran on March 4, 2026 (ET)? | BUY | 0.0371328458 | $199.93 |
| 02-21 21:15 | Will the US not strike Iran by February 28, 2026? | BUY | 0.1799998704 | $1.00 |