0x115A63c208278A576150176880F48F064c94e4A6-1766247046507
0x115a63c208278a576150176880f48f064c94e4a6
- Realised P&L
- $-42.5k
- Volume
- $5.84M
- Markets traded
- 84
- Open portfolio
- $4.9k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded84
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration56.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration86.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · Yes | 0.057 | 0.029 | $4.2k | −$4.3k |
| Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.135 | $327.91 | +$85.01 |
| Trump out as President before 2027? · Yes | 0.094 | 0.035 | $285.59 | −$491.43 |
| Will Michelle Obama win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.009 | 0.003 | $25.00 | −$65.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$9.2kat 0.176Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals?
- +$1.4kat 0.011Will Victor Wembanyama record a quadruple double this season?
- +$1.0kat 0.013Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$936.13at 0.021Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$627.59at 0.146Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-13 05:15 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.0577039973 | $390.14 |
| 10-13 05:15 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.0537098491 | $2.5k |
| 10-12 18:20 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | SELL | 0.04 | $55.25 |
| 10-10 21:56 | Will Lamine Yamal win the 2026 Ballon d'Or? | BUY | 0.2982129508 | $3.9k |
| 10-10 21:39 | Trump out as President before 2027? | SELL | 0.041 | $108.67 |
| 07-18 21:57 | Will France win on 2026-07-18? | BUY | 0.014 | $56.00 |
| 07-14 20:33 | Will France win on 2026-07-14? | BUY | 0.0274999997 | $100.00 |
| 06-30 01:56 | Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 2 Morocco? | BUY | 0.0223893964 | $50.00 |
| 06-24 20:51 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.1 | $1.0k |
| 06-24 16:13 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | BUY | 0.0789592745 | $894.01 |
| 06-24 16:05 | Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.076 | $396.90 |
| 06-24 08:30 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | BUY | 0.0520147501 | $1000.00 |
| 06-17 02:09 | Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.002 | $99.93 |
| 06-17 02:08 | Will Algeria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | BUY | 0.002 | $100.00 |
| 04-23 09:15 | Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? | SELL | 0.166 | $101.59 |