0x1151a8eA57b5B25105B4F01fBd22bfd07fe7C9aB-1769285568771
0x1151a8ea57b5b25105b4f01fbd22bfd07fe7c9ab
- Realised P&L
- $645.50
- Volume
- $139.1k
- Markets traded
- 22
- Open portfolio
- $41.66
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded22
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration39.8% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample15 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.080 | 0.026 | $41.66 | −$84.12 |
| Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 7? · Yes | 0.027 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? · No | 0.078 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$99.00 |
| Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 9? · Yes | 0.032 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? · No | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$132.48 |
| Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? · Yes | 0.160 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$49.62 |
| Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 8? · Yes | 0.026 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 6? · Yes | 0.015 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$55.83 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$911.07at 0.180Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026?
- +$681.77at 0.369Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026?
- +$369.56at 0.351US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 22, 2026?
- +$207.38at 0.346Will Israel take military action in Gaza on April 10, 2026?
- +$120.25at 0.231US x Iran diplomatic meeting by April 30, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-11 05:56 | Will the Iranian regime survive U.S. military strikes? | BUY | 0.0780258583 | $99.00 |
| 05-04 16:52 | Will the US officially declare war on Iran by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $125.78 |
| 05-02 22:13 | Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 9? | BUY | 0.0319874857 | $100.00 |
| 05-02 22:12 | Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 8? | BUY | 0.0257963083 | $50.00 |
| 05-02 22:12 | Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 7? | BUY | 0.0269972428 | $50.00 |
| 05-02 22:12 | Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on May 6? | BUY | 0.0145972117 | $55.83 |
| 04-28 18:54 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | SELL | 0.19 | $206.02 |
| 04-27 18:57 | Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.003 | $32.36 |
| 04-27 18:17 | Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? | SELL | 0.997 | $1.1k |
| 04-27 07:47 | Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.3449752256 | $300.42 |
| 04-26 22:17 | Putin meets with Iranian officials by May 15? | BUY | 0.0393562637 | $25.74 |
| 04-24 19:09 | Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 27? | BUY | 0.2467589994 | $100.00 |
| 04-24 19:04 | Will the next US x Iran diplomatic meeting be on April 26? | BUY | 0.3450913611 | $100.00 |
| 04-24 18:59 | Israel x Hezbollah Ceasefire extended by April 26, 2026? | BUY | 0.4664303035 | $100.18 |
| 04-24 18:58 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? | BUY | 0.1899999993 | $206.02 |