Lucascostacastro
0x10f0e8df8f0efb0787a82cb6a5a2b6f4061c051c
- Realised P&L
- $-27.94
- Volume
- $3.6k
- Markets traded
- 266
- Open portfolio
- $20.13
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded266
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration9.1% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)64.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration24.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will USD/BRL hit 6.25 (High) in 2026? · No | 0.850 | 0.810 | $4.93 | −$0.24 |
| Will USD/BRL hit 6 (High) in 2026? · No | 0.750 | 0.685 | $3.42 | −$0.33 |
| Will USD/BRL hit 4.25 (Low) in 2026? · No | 0.700 | 0.515 | $2.58 | −$0.93 |
| US strike on Colombia by December 31? · No | 0.722 | 0.865 | $2.40 | +$0.40 |
| Will USD/BRL hit 4.5 (Low) in 2026? · No | 0.500 | 0.465 | $2.33 | −$0.17 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.781 | 0.605 | $2.32 | −$0.68 |
| Will USD/BRL hit 5.75 (High) in 2026? · No | 0.700 | 0.430 | $2.15 | −$1.35 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$8.33at 0.580US x Venezuela military engagement by December 31?
- +$6.68at 0.120Jair Bolsonaro in jail by November 30?
- +$3.83at 0.034Bitcoin Up or Down - March 5, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET
- +$3.56at 0.240US x Iran ceasefire by April 30?
- +$3.24at 0.756Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-03 23:13 | Will any presidential candidate win outright in the first round of the Brazil election? | SELL | 0.948 | $3.30 |
| 09-12 13:32 | Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 in September? | BUY | 0.78 | $1.00 |
| 09-12 13:31 | Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in September? | BUY | 0.77 | $1.00 |
| 09-12 13:27 | US strike on Cuba by December 31? | SELL | 0.86 | $5.29 |
| 09-12 13:27 | Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on December 31? | SELL | 0.74 | $2.64 |
| 09-12 13:25 | Will Kimi Antonelli be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? | SELL | 0.859 | $1.17 |
| 09-12 13:25 | Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's US Open? | SELL | 0.424 | $1.16 |
| 09-12 13:25 | Will Deltan Dallagnol win the most votes in the 2026 Paraná Senate election? | SELL | 0.38 | $1.15 |
| 09-12 13:24 | Will Guilherme Derrite win the most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election? | SELL | 0.58 | $1.26 |
| 09-10 23:57 | Will Ben Shelton win the 2026 Men's US Open? | BUY | 0.3649998704 | $1.00 |
| 09-10 23:55 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.7399999186 | $2.00 |
| 09-10 23:49 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | SELL | 0.524 | $1.58 |
| 08-23 20:39 | Will Deltan Dallagnol win the most votes in the 2026 Paraná Senate election? | BUY | 0.3299997822 | $1.00 |
| 08-23 20:36 | Will Guilherme Derrite win the most votes in the 2026 São Paulo Senate election? | BUY | 0.4599997608 | $1.00 |
| 08-23 20:31 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro finish in second place in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.8799999648 | $1.00 |