TheSwedishWolf
0x0fafcd98288de61a3350b24b8a1ecc1284bdd0d9
- Realised P&L
- $-2.9k
- Volume
- $1.04M
- Markets traded
- 734
- Open portfolio
- $5.2k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded734
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.0% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)46.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration74.7% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.762 | 0.635 | $3.9k | −$776.05 |
| Will the Left Party (V) be in the next Swedish government? · No | 0.892 | 0.880 | $493.20 | −$6.80 |
| Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next Swedish government? · No | 0.167 | 0.164 | $275.19 | −$4.47 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.556 | 0.557 | $265.51 | +$0.51 |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.295 | $138.94 | −$7.06 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.453 | 0.495 | $136.66 | +$11.66 |
| Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by September 30? · Yes | 0.310 | 0.007 | $2.44 | −$98.24 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.5kat 0.039Will Zelenskyy wear a suit before July?
- +$1.3kat 0.940Israel military action against Yemen by April 15, 2026?
- +$935.58at 0.410Iran closes its airspace by June 30?
- +$822.66at 0.765US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30?
- +$714.51at 0.417Will Argentina reach the 2026 FIFA World Cup final?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-25 18:00 | Will the Left Party (V) be in the next Swedish government? | BUY | 0.892131401 | $500.00 |
| 09-25 16:36 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.562999999 | $48.00 |
| 09-25 15:09 | Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next Swedish government? | BUY | 0.1646022082 | $50.00 |
| 09-25 15:05 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6358257569 | $125.00 |
| 09-25 15:05 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.4527562606 | $125.00 |
| 09-25 15:04 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6319999964 | $100.00 |
| 09-25 15:04 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.31 | $146.00 |
| 09-25 15:00 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.555 | $217.00 |
| 09-25 13:21 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.618 | $12.36 |
| 09-25 10:02 | Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next Swedish government? | BUY | 0.1388601074 | $21.67 |
| 09-23 12:40 | Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next Swedish government? | BUY | 0.1531576325 | $10.00 |
| 09-23 12:40 | Will Magdalena Andersson be the next Prime Minister of Sweden? | SELL | 0.12 | $10.80 |
| 09-23 07:54 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.6259999976 | $98.40 |
| 09-22 18:27 | Will the Swedish Social Democratic Party (S) be in the next Swedish government? | BUY | 0.1724778737 | $54.00 |
| 09-22 18:06 | Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in the United States by September 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.6876376534 | $129.41 |