0x0f6399f3d5F152a7679D148C765363D896C1b385-1768049206153
0x0f6399f3d5f152a7679d148c765363d896c1b385
- Realised P&L
- $784.77
- Volume
- $156.0k
- Markets traded
- 24
- Open portfolio
- $1.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded24
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration48.6% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample14 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.9%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration100.0% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? · Yes | 0.173 | 0.135 | $1.4k | −$386.69 |
| Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair? · Yes | 0.030 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Will the U.S. collect between $200b and $500b in revenue in 2025? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? · No | 0.029 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Will xAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? · Yes | 0.017 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Will the U.S. collect between $100b and $200b in revenue in 2025? · Yes | 0.068 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$99.93 |
| Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$29.99 |
| Will Google have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? · Yes | 0.254 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of January 2026? · Yes | 0.009 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of February 2026? · Yes | 0.084 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$200.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.4kat 0.220Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
- +$830.50at 0.405Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of March?
- +$502.83at 0.856Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the April 2026 meeting?
- +$96.95at 0.006Will DeepSeek have the best AI model at the end of February 2026?
- +$15.77at 0.053Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 06-02 07:42 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.064 | $435.94 |
| 06-02 07:41 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.064 | $491.59 |
| 06-02 07:37 | Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2027? | SELL | 0.12 | $27.91 |
| 05-11 09:55 | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.1799999993 | $200.00 |
| 05-11 09:55 | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.1799999993 | $200.00 |
| 05-11 09:55 | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.1799999993 | $200.00 |
| 05-11 09:47 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.0689999999 | $500.00 |
| 05-11 09:46 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | BUY | 0.0689999999 | $500.00 |
| 05-11 03:40 | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.1699999986 | $100.00 |
| 05-11 03:40 | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.1699999986 | $100.00 |
| 05-11 03:40 | Will China invade Taiwan by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.1699999986 | $100.00 |
| 04-24 00:41 | Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | SELL | 0.0570383232 | $215.77 |
| 04-21 11:20 | DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? | SELL | 0.7598233547 | $3.3k |
| 04-10 03:26 | DeepSeek V4 released by April 30? | BUY | 0.8321150605 | $3.6k |
| 03-25 04:11 | Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of April 2026? | BUY | 0.0528704154 | $200.00 |