ltree
0x0f4cdb8fe0051ad1cd4f72ea0a482fcf1f1639db
- Realised P&L
- $99.37
- Volume
- $1.3k
- Markets traded
- 13
- Open portfolio
- $225.07
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar7.6%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded13
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration84.8% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample6 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)83.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration46.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? · Yes | 0.850 | 0.895 | $105.29 | +$5.29 |
| Will the close USD/JPY price at the end of 2026 be between 150 and 160? · Yes | 0.436 | 0.385 | $44.15 | −$5.85 |
| Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.520 | 0.575 | $28.75 | +$2.75 |
| Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? · No | 0.500 | 0.585 | $19.18 | +$2.79 |
| Will the Republicans win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.937 | 0.943 | $9.43 | +$0.06 |
| Will the Republicans win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026? · No | 0.900 | 0.915 | $9.15 | +$0.15 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.195 | 0.182 | $9.13 | −$0.63 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$81.91at 0.709Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs?
- +$8.22at 0.880Will Susie Wiles be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027?
- +$3.20at 0.130Will the Republicans win the New Hampshire Senate race in 2026?
- +$1.97at 0.962Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026?
- +$1.28at 0.940Xi Jinping out in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 07:15 | Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | SELL | 0.39 | $15.60 |
| 08-13 01:11 | Will the Democrats win the Iowa Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.44 | $17.60 |
| 08-13 00:47 | Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.52 | $26.00 |
| 08-13 00:44 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? | SELL | 0.982 | $102.19 |
| 08-11 07:44 | Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.5 | $16.39 |
| 08-11 07:42 | Will the Republicans win the North Carolina Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $9.00 |
| 08-11 07:40 | Will the Republicans win the Arkansas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.937 | $9.37 |
| 08-10 06:18 | Will the close USD/JPY price at the end of 2026 be between 150 and 160? | BUY | 0.4360372916 | $50.00 |
| 08-04 09:18 | Will Google have the best AI model at the end of August 2026? | BUY | 0.9609039093 | $100.00 |
| 02-24 06:06 | Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections? | BUY | 0.8499999996 | $100.00 |
| 01-22 06:56 | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | BUY | 0.689999999 | $100.00 |
| 01-22 06:11 | Will Susie Wiles be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | SELL | 0.9802439024 | $80.38 |
| 12-22 02:08 | Will Susie Wiles be the first to leave the Trump Cabinet before 2027? | BUY | 0.88 | $72.16 |
| 12-17 04:44 | Supreme Court rules in favor of Trump's tariffs? | BUY | 0.73 | $100.00 |
| 10-11 03:50 | Xi Jinping out in 2025? | BUY | 0.9399999991 | $20.00 |