pibeibei
0x0e4d7b5f78619877a4527b82f8247e724a18ebfd
- Realised P&L
- $-0.72
- Volume
- $6.9k
- Markets traded
- 65
- Open portfolio
- $14.11
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.0%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded65
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration12.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration84.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? · No | 0.999 | 1.000 | $11.90 | +$0.01 |
| Will the Republicans win Leavenworth County in the Kansas Senate race in 2026? · Yes | 0.740 | 0.730 | $2.21 | −$0.03 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 29? · No | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.10 |
| Will Keir Starmer win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2025? · Yes | 0.004 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will Monad perform an airdrop by November 20? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Will the price of Bitcoin be between $102,000 and $104,000 on November 16? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.00 |
| Kraken vs. Utah · Kraken | 0.390 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.84at 0.994US strikes Iran by February 15, 2026?
- +$0.81at 0.994Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from November 18 to November 25, 2025?
- +$0.51at 0.750Giants vs. Rams
- +$0.28at 0.998Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from March 6 to March 13, 2026?
- +$0.28at 0.998Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from September 19 to September 26, 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-18 11:41 | Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.999 | $11.90 |
| 10-18 11:38 | Will the Republicans win Leavenworth County in the Kansas Senate race in 2026? | BUY | 0.7399997621 | $2.24 |
| 09-21 14:19 | Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? | BUY | 0.996 | $12.10 |
| 09-21 14:17 | Giants vs. Rams | BUY | 0.7399998816 | $1.50 |
| 08-26 13:58 | Will XRP dip to $0.60 in August? | BUY | 0.999 | $13.60 |
| 07-23 10:34 | Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9969999999 | $13.50 |
| 05-30 03:36 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 30? | BUY | 0.999 | $120.00 |
| 05-28 10:43 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $80,000 on May 29? | BUY | 0.998 | $120.00 |
| 05-28 10:38 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on May 29? | BUY | 0.002 | $2.10 |
| 05-28 10:35 | Will Elon Musk post 165-189 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $22.00 |
| 05-23 09:36 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on May 23? | BUY | 0.9979999941 | $144.00 |
| 05-13 10:20 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on May 14? | BUY | 0.999 | $144.00 |
| 05-08 13:52 | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 May 4-10? | BUY | 0.998999994 | $142.00 |
| 05-01 06:24 | Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on May 1? | BUY | 0.998999994 | $143.00 |
| 04-21 06:51 | Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from April 20 to April 22, 2026? | BUY | 0.999 | $143.99 |