0x0dcbf92cb8518b02875ee2afa551b42330899587
- Realised P&L
- $-7.75
- Volume
- $99.22
- Markets traded
- 25
- Open portfolio
- $8.28
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-7.8%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded25
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration27.9% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- CautionSettled sample20 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)40.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration26.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? · No | 0.240 | 0.265 | $2.21 | +$0.21 |
| Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $330 Week of August 3 2026? · Yes | 0.760 | 0.675 | $1.78 | −$0.22 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.500 | 0.465 | $1.42 | −$0.11 |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? · No | 0.250 | 0.145 | $1.16 | −$0.84 |
| Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026? · No | 0.600 | 0.300 | $1.00 | −$1.00 |
| Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.085 | $0.71 | −$1.29 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.65at 0.430Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026?
- +$1.87at 0.450Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from July 25 to July 27, 2026?
- +$1.60at 0.550Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during July Press Conference?
- +$0.81at 0.710Will Garmin (GRMN) beat quarterly earnings?
- +$0.76at 0.725Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.4M and 7.5M in June?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-04 18:19 | US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31? | BUY | 0.2399999184 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 10:16 | Will Tesla, Inc. (TSLA) hit (HIGH) $330 Week of August 3 2026? | BUY | 0.76 | $2.00 |
| 08-04 02:16 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15? | BUY | 0.25 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 18:06 | Will JOLTS Job Openings be between 7.4M and 7.5M in June? | BUY | 0.7249999819 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 09:03 | Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 28 to August 4, 2026? | BUY | 0.6899999586 | $2.00 |
| 08-02 00:35 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 3 to August 5, 2026? | BUY | 0.59999994 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 16:30 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.4299999505 | $2.00 |
| 08-01 04:33 | Will GPT-6 be released before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $2.00 |
| 07-31 20:32 | Another pandemic before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5 | $1.91 |
| 07-31 20:30 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from August 1 to August 3, 2026? | BUY | 0.6 | $1.83 |
| 07-31 12:28 | Will the US Trade Deficit be between $70 billion and $80 billion in June 2026? | BUY | 0.48 | $1.80 |
| 07-28 23:45 | Will Sonos (SONO) beat quarterly earnings? | BUY | 0.394999845 | $1.30 |
| 07-28 13:28 | Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI? | BUY | 0.5019999626 | $1.53 |
| 07-28 01:43 | Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $0.70T on July 31? | BUY | 0.5579998759 | $1.96 |
| 07-27 17:05 | Will Warsh say "Inflation" 20+ times during July Press Conference? | BUY | 0.5499999298 | $1.96 |