0x0da97305291853e0fc99331ef76c1651fa1698a9
0x0da97305291853e0fc99331ef76c1651fa1698a9
- Realised P&L
- $-6.01
- Volume
- $238.37
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $6.93
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration41.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)50.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration82.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? · Yes | 0.870 | 0.993 | $5.71 | +$0.71 |
| US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027? · No | 0.240 | 0.230 | $1.23 | −$0.05 |
| US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30? · Yes | 0.820 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will England win on 2026-07-11? · Yes | 0.530 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$3.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$2.47at 0.623Will United States win on 2026-06-19?
- +$1.87at 0.293US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026?
- +$1.33at 0.754Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
- +$0.26at 0.951Will Argentina reach the Round of 16 at the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$0.07at 0.934Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in August?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-25 11:53 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by March 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.23999997 | $1.28 |
| 09-11 20:44 | Will Valencia CF win on 2026-09-11? | SELL | 0.09 | $0.82 |
| 09-11 20:31 | Will Valencia CF win on 2026-09-11? | BUY | 0.109999989 | $1.00 |
| 09-04 13:11 | Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of September 2026? | BUY | 0.8699998695 | $5.00 |
| 08-27 14:13 | US ceasefire against Iran continues through September 30? | BUY | 0.8199999836 | $5.00 |
| 08-27 14:11 | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in August? | SELL | 0.9599208103 | $5.21 |
| 08-21 22:59 | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in August? | BUY | 0.9199999043 | $5.00 |
| 08-21 22:58 | Will Pete Buttigieg win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.052 | $1.00 |
| 08-21 22:58 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.57 | $3.93 |
| 08-13 15:00 | US announces end of Iranian blockade by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.2899999275 | $2.00 |
| 08-13 14:58 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | SELL | 0.27 | $1.80 |
| 08-13 14:58 | Will Karim Benzema attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? | SELL | 0.02 | $0.17 |
| 08-06 14:45 | Will Karim Benzema attend Cristiano Ronaldo's wedding? | BUY | 0.1199998992 | $1.00 |
| 07-31 18:34 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.6 | $4.00 |
| 07-24 01:17 | Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.7369999591 | $4.00 |