troawa
0x0d95b039947554869d79f7a11a9171e1b38fd4be
- Realised P&L
- $-582.97
- Volume
- $39.1k
- Markets traded
- 42
- Open portfolio
- $440.47
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded42
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration24.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample33 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)51.5%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration25.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by December 31? · No | 0.650 | 0.865 | $112.45 | +$27.95 |
| US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.640 | 0.895 | $89.50 | +$25.50 |
| Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.421 | 0.547 | $65.70 | +$15.18 |
| Anthony Fauci charged by December 31? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.285 | $57.00 | −$7.00 |
| Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? · Yes | 0.137 | 0.029 | $42.75 | −$163.33 |
| Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026? · Yes | 0.200 | 0.040 | $31.60 | −$128.40 |
| Ukraine recognizes Russian sovereignty over its territory by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.108 | 0.025 | $26.77 | −$91.29 |
| Will any country leave NATO by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.140 | 0.025 | $14.70 | −$69.30 |
| Will the Fed decide differently in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? · No | 0.520 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$52.00 |
| Will the Fed Pause–Pause–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$42.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$551.03at 0.566US strikes Iran by January 31, 2026?
- +$466.20at 0.360Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes?
- +$287.20at 0.425Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026?
- +$272.74at 0.590US strikes Iran by January 23, 2026?
- +$157.50at 0.706US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 04-12 22:12 | Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? | SELL | 0.004 | $0.02 |
| 04-01 14:12 | US forces enter Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.37 | $37.00 |
| 04-01 07:06 | US forces enter Iran by December 31? | BUY | 0.38 | $38.00 |
| 03-29 21:57 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.31 | $31.00 |
| 03-26 08:33 | US forces enter Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.41 | $164.00 |
| 03-23 17:56 | Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes? | SELL | 0.999 | $555.88 |
| 03-22 21:51 | Italy Judicial Reform Referendum passes? | SELL | 0.43 | $136.46 |
| 02-25 21:38 | Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | SELL | 0.027 | $20.25 |
| 02-25 21:38 | Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on March 31? | SELL | 0.028 | $7.00 |
| 02-19 16:11 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2026? | BUY | 0.49 | $98.00 |
| 02-19 11:24 | Trump invokes War Powers against Iran by March 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.55 | $82.88 |
| 02-06 10:20 | US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? | BUY | 0.022 | $9.44 |
| 02-05 07:43 | US x Iran nuclear talks resume by March 31? | BUY | 0.06 | $36.00 |
| 02-03 18:04 | US strikes Iran by March 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.58 | $174.00 |
| 02-03 18:03 | US strikes Iran by February 13, 2026? | SELL | 0.86 | $47.30 |