captainahab
0x0d195cff7f8f08606ec5e468e59126661cbe8f93
- Realised P&L
- $-4.0k
- Volume
- $86.2k
- Markets traded
- 45
- Open portfolio
- $708.31
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-4.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded45
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration25.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample33 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)36.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration44.7% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$148.20at 0.881Will Trump meet with Xi Jinping by October 31?
- +$137.08at 0.908Will Shigeru Ishiba be the first leader out in 2025?
- +$91.50at 0.847Will the Government shutdown end by November 30?
- +$47.50at 0.918Will voter turnout in the next New York City mayoral election be between 27–30%?
- +$42.04at 0.940Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 4.6% in 2025?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-10 01:19 | Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? | BUY | 0.16 | $289.60 |
| 04-29 15:09 | Will the Kharg Island oil terminal be hit by April 30? | SELL | 0.025 | $2.50 |
| 04-29 15:08 | Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? | SELL | 0.01 | $8.37 |
| 04-25 12:17 | Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? | SELL | 0.0247315319 | $73.33 |
| 04-25 12:15 | Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.0307653375 | $35.01 |
| 04-25 12:12 | Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026? | SELL | 0.03 | $3.60 |
| 04-20 02:17 | Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.09 | $50.41 |
| 04-20 02:16 | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? | SELL | 0.14 | $125.80 |
| 04-20 02:15 | Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.09 | $7.02 |
| 04-20 00:57 | Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.08 | $245.76 |
| 04-19 13:24 | Will another country conduct military action against Iran by April 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.09 | $2.70 |
| 04-19 13:12 | Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026? | SELL | 0.002 | $7.46 |
| 04-19 13:00 | Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026? | SELL | 0.008 | $1.90 |
| 04-19 12:56 | Will Trump announce that the US x Iran ceasefire has been broken by April 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.008 | $30.35 |
| 04-16 11:01 | Will Ukraine agree to cede territory to Russia before 2027? | SELL | 0.16 | $26.86 |