0x0cb0f3c5f3c95bb21ab779ce812a519c8fa5b5ed
0x0cb0f3c5f3c95bb21ab779ce812a519c8fa5b5ed
- Realised P&L
- $10.50
- Volume
- $365.62
- Markets traded
- 100
- Open portfolio
- $8.57
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.9%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded100
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration16.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration17.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 23? · No | 0.280 | 0.420 | $1.50 | +$0.50 |
| United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor 84% to 85%? · No | 0.590 | 0.865 | $1.47 | +$0.47 |
| Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 10% to 12.5%? · No | 0.640 | 0.905 | $1.41 | +$0.41 |
| Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $547.50 Week of October 19 2026? · No | 0.600 | 0.750 | $1.25 | +$0.25 |
| Lam Research (LRCX) Q1 China revenue mix <22%? · No | 0.790 | 0.745 | $0.94 | −$0.06 |
| Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 12.5% to 15%? · No | 0.590 | 0.395 | $0.67 | −$0.33 |
| Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of October 19 2026? · Yes | 0.550 | 0.275 | $0.50 | −$0.50 |
| United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor 85%+? · Yes | 0.260 | 0.100 | $0.38 | −$0.62 |
| Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.540 | 0.070 | $0.26 | −$1.72 |
| Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026? · Yes | 0.319 | 0.060 | $0.19 | −$0.81 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$7.01at 0.229Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from August 7 to August 14, 2026?
- +$5.92at 0.259Will the Central Bank of Colombia increase the monetary policy interest rate by 50+ bps at the July meeting?
- +$5.69at 0.260US-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?
- +$3.51at 0.229Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 5 to October 7, 2026?
- +$3.31at 0.239Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-19 09:29 | Will Robinhood Markets, Inc. (HOOD) hit (HIGH) $105 Week of October 19 2026? | BUY | 0.549999945 | $1.00 |
| 10-19 01:29 | Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $547.50 Week of October 19 2026? | BUY | 0.59999988 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 17:29 | Saudi Arabia military action against Yemen on October 23? | BUY | 0.2799999664 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 09:28 | Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from October 17 to October 19, 2026? | BUY | 0.75 | $1.00 |
| 10-18 01:23 | United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor 84% to 85%? | BUY | 0.5899998466 | $1.00 |
| 10-17 17:23 | United Airlines (UAL) Q3 consolidated passenger load factor 85%+? | BUY | 0.2599999896 | $1.00 |
| 10-17 09:22 | Lam Research (LRCX) Q1 China revenue mix <22%? | BUY | 0.7899998657 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 21:54 | Will the next Fable model (5.2+) be released on October 20, 2026? | BUY | 0.3189999225 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 12:32 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 16? | BUY | 0.6699999196 | $1.00 |
| 10-16 04:22 | Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 9 to October 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.2479999425 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 18:50 | SPY (SPY) Up or Down on October 15? | BUY | 0.7099998509 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 10:00 | Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from October 15 to October 17, 2026? | BUY | 0.2299999517 | $1.00 |
| 10-15 00:39 | Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 10% to 12.5%? | BUY | 0.64 | $1.00 |
| 10-14 04:37 | Intuitive Surgical (ISRG) Q3 da Vinci procedure growth 12.5% to 15%? | BUY | 0.5899997404 | $1.00 |
| 10-13 20:32 | Taiwan Semiconductor (TSM) Q3 gross profit margin 67% to 68%? | BUY | 0.6199997024 | $1.00 |