0xdoqwkp12
0x0c520452596305b6a05c8ad9c82636330ac9f01f
- Realised P&L
- $1.2k
- Volume
- $31.9k
- Markets traded
- 105
- Open portfolio
- $2.1k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar3.8%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded105
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration33.5% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)48.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration83.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Canada have the highest unemployment rate since 2016 this year? · No | 0.705 | 0.892 | $1.8k | +$370.71 |
| Will Stripe acquire Paypal in 2026? · No | 0.787 | 0.960 | $336.26 | +$60.59 |
| Will no company have an AI model hit 1550 on Chatbot Arena in 2026? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.350 | $15.31 | +$8.75 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$776.35at 0.685Will the February 2026 unemployment rate be 4.4%?
- +$291.60at 0.846Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
- +$290.43at 0.738Will the February 2026 unemployment rate be 4.3%?
- +$223.94at 0.910Will monthly inflation increase by 0.2% in February?
- +$165.35at 0.152Will ChatGPT be out as the #1 Free App in the US Apple Store by February 28?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-24 15:05 | Will any AI model reach a Chatbot Arena score of at least 1550 by December 31? | SELL | 0.2120781893 | $9.28 |
| 10-24 15:04 | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | SELL | 0.975 | $2.2k |
| 04-22 16:50 | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | BUY | 0.92899997 | $1.86 |
| 03-25 15:49 | Will Google Gemini score at least 40% on Humanity’s Last Exam? | BUY | 0.039 | $0.24 |
| 03-22 15:20 | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | BUY | 0.911999992 | $1.83 |
| 03-22 15:20 | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | BUY | 0.911999992 | $1.83 |
| 03-22 15:20 | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | BUY | 0.911999992 | $1.83 |
| 03-22 15:19 | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | BUY | 0.911999992 | $1.83 |
| 03-22 15:19 | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | BUY | 0.911999992 | $1.83 |
| 03-22 15:19 | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | BUY | 0.911999992 | $1.83 |
| 03-22 15:19 | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | BUY | 0.911999992 | $1.83 |
| 03-22 15:18 | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | BUY | 0.911999992 | $1.83 |
| 03-22 15:18 | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | BUY | 0.911999992 | $1.83 |
| 03-22 15:18 | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | BUY | 0.911999992 | $1.83 |
| 03-22 15:18 | Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027? | BUY | 0.911999992 | $1.83 |