The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA
0x0c0e270cf879583d6a0142fc817e05b768d0434e
- Realised P&L
- $1.85M
- Volume
- $138.66M
- Markets traded
- 1,386
- Open portfolio
- $765.8k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.3%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- CautionMarkets traded1,386
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- CautionProfit concentration45.7% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)54.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration52.9% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$262.4kat 0.248Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
- +$171.1kat 0.995Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$157.9kat 0.152Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?
- +$137.1kat 0.3212024 Balance of Power: R Prez R Senate R House
- +$133.1kat 0.497Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-31 15:42 | Democratic Senate odds <60% on November 2? | BUY | 0.99 | $79.84 |
| 10-31 15:42 | Democratic Senate odds 60-62% on November 2? | BUY | 0.989 | $36.59 |
| 10-31 15:42 | Democratic Senate odds 62-64% on November 2? | BUY | 0.954 | $400.68 |
| 10-31 15:41 | Democratic Senate odds >68% on November 1? | BUY | 0.89 | $133.50 |
| 10-31 15:40 | Republican Senate odds dip to 25% by October 31? | BUY | 0.99 | $2.2k |
| 10-31 15:40 | Republican House odds dip to 5% by October 31? | BUY | 0.995 | $84.46 |
| 10-30 21:11 | Republican House odds dip to 7% by October 31? | SELL | 0.0125140825 | $0.44 |
| 10-30 21:09 | Republican House odds dip to 7% by October 31? | SELL | 0.0163636364 | $0.11 |
| 10-30 17:39 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $510.86 |
| 10-30 17:39 | US-Iran Final Nuclear Deal by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.88 | $26.40 |
| 10-30 13:28 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? | BUY | 0.9915438266 | $2.0k |
| 10-30 13:28 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 28? | BUY | 0.9887743852 | $131.48 |
| 10-30 13:28 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | BUY | 0.9389911718 | $4.3k |
| 10-30 04:48 | Will Ethereum reach $2,800 in October? | BUY | 0.998 | $6.8k |
| 10-30 04:48 | Will Ethereum reach $2,700 in October? | BUY | 0.9924829363 | $6.2k |