The Spirit of Ukraine>UMA
0x0c0e270cf879583d6a0142fc817e05b768d0434e
- Realised P&L
- $2.27M
- Volume
- $133.51M
- Markets traded
- 1,293
- Open portfolio
- $1.23M
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar1.7%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- CautionMarkets traded1,293
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- BlockerProfit concentration70.7% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)76.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration36.9% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$270.1kat 0.226Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
- +$170.6kat 0.995Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$154.0kat 0.171Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 Democratic Presidential Nomination?
- +$145.7kat 0.646No change in Fed interest rates after July 2025 meeting?
- +$141.6kat 0.500Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 00:00 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by October 31? | BUY | 0.93 | $13.3k |
| 09-16 23:59 | Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.002 | $100.26 |
| 09-16 23:56 | Will Elissa Slotkin win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.002 | $228.62 |
| 09-16 23:55 | Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | SELL | 0.006 | $29.29 |
| 09-16 23:50 | Clarity Act (H.R.3633) signed into law in 2026? | BUY | 0.934 | $21.49 |
| 09-16 23:50 | Will Bitcoin reach $90,000 in September? | BUY | 0.96 | $25.1k |
| 09-16 23:50 | Will Bitcoin reach $92,500 in September? | BUY | 0.97099 | $582.59 |
| 09-16 23:50 | Will Bitcoin reach $95,000 in September? | BUY | 0.9809408945 | $5.2k |
| 09-16 23:49 | Will Bitcoin reach $97,500 in September? | BUY | 0.984 | $52.32 |
| 09-16 23:49 | Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in September? | BUY | 0.986 | $15.9k |
| 09-16 23:48 | Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 US Presidential Election? | SELL | 0.017 | $20.51 |
| 09-16 23:46 | Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.81 | $451.06 |
| 09-16 23:46 | Lindsay Clancy convicted of murder by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9439422011 | $2.1k |
| 09-16 23:45 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by September 30? | BUY | 0.993 | $103.62 |
| 09-16 23:45 | Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $1.7k |