0x0bC00DcB5e32D4B913a99C5bF274ADBb8eCd0f2a-1783274222768
0x0bc00dcb5e32d4b913a99c5bf274adbb8ecd0f2a
- Realised P&L
- $42.7k
- Volume
- $342.5k
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $6.4k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar12.5%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration69.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample10 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)80.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration61.2% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.075 | $3.9k | −$1.3k |
| Will the Bank of Japan announce no change at the September 2026 meeting? · No | 0.217 | 0.345 | $1.3k | +$474.48 |
| Will the Bank of Japan announce a 25 bps increase at the September 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.209 | 0.355 | $1.1k | +$455.98 |
| Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? · Yes | 0.003 | 0.003 | $94.35 | −$2.14 |
| Will Miami Heat win the 2027 NBA Finals? · Yes | 0.062 | 0.035 | $0.60 | −$0.45 |
| Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.230 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$2.3k |
| France vs. Spain: Team to Advance · France | 0.580 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.5k |
| Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting? · Yes | 0.008 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$335.36 |
| Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? · Yes | 0.121 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$1.8k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$34.1kat 0.141Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
- +$11.6kat 0.193Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
- +$1.8kat 0.201Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on July 31?
- +$636.41at 0.609Will LeBron James play for the Miami Heat in 2026-27?
- +$613.03at 0.660France to score first vs. Morocco?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-01 18:46 | Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? | BUY | 0.005 | $27.64 |
| 08-01 18:34 | Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? | BUY | 0.004 | $0.32 |
| 08-01 18:34 | Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? | BUY | 0.004 | $4.00 |
| 08-01 18:02 | Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? | BUY | 0.003 | $29.89 |
| 08-01 18:01 | Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? | BUY | 0.003 | $15.00 |
| 08-01 17:57 | Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? | BUY | 0.002 | $12.64 |
| 08-01 17:45 | Will Dune: Messiah be the top grossing movie of 2026? | BUY | 0.002 | $1.00 |
| 07-31 17:30 | Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? | BUY | 0.11 | $0.06 |
| 07-31 16:49 | Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? | BUY | 0.11 | $346.50 |
| 07-31 16:39 | Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? | BUY | 0.1111437146 | $3.33 |
| 07-31 16:21 | Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? | BUY | 0.11 | $20.82 |
| 07-31 16:20 | Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $6.38 |
| 07-31 16:20 | Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $130.00 |
| 07-31 16:19 | Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? | BUY | 0.1 | $10.00 |
| 07-31 16:18 | Will Avengers: Doomsday be the top grossing movie of 2026? | BUY | 0.09 | $2.07 |