flxbt
0x0aaa136c909c1161a7deb24134acdf6e4d2f42ce
- Realised P&L
- $-1.7k
- Volume
- $73.1k
- Markets traded
- 6
- Open portfolio
- $2.1k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-2.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded6
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- BlockerProfit concentration51.0% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)66.7%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration48.0% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Tucker Carlson announce a presidential run before 2027? · No | 0.877 | 0.900 | $1.0k | +$25.58 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.275 | 0.192 | $697.20 | −$302.80 |
| Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.048 | 0.009 | $415.24 | −$1.7k |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$183.61at 0.845Will UAE strike Iran by April 30?
- +$176.47at 0.850Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30?
- +$-111.10at 0.180Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-21 00:05 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | SELL | 0.17 | $1.9k |
| 05-10 19:24 | Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027? | BUY | 0.1799999999 | $2.0k |
| 04-14 10:50 | Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.0449999957 | $10.00 |
| 04-08 11:25 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.2746696327 | $1000.00 |
| 04-08 11:20 | Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by April 30? | BUY | 0.8499999992 | $1000.00 |
| 04-08 11:18 | Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.0492792422 | $1000.00 |
| 04-08 11:18 | Will UAE strike Iran by April 30? | BUY | 0.8448767518 | $1000.00 |
| 04-08 11:16 | Will Tucker Carlson announce a presidential run before 2027? | BUY | 0.8775545185 | $1000.00 |
| 04-08 11:14 | Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.0465219894 | $1000.00 |