m4ds
0x09cc4da8a3e39237aa74b445a300565e33d0421a
- Realised P&L
- $24.4k
- Volume
- $218.4k
- Markets traded
- 676
- Open portfolio
- $42.0k
Can you copy this trader?
plausible — No blocker visible in the public data. That is a reason to backtest it, not a reason to follow it.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- ClearEdge per dollar11.2%
- Wide enough that a copier's worse fill would not automatically erase it.
- ClearMarkets traded676
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration21.7% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)32.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration54.4% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? · Yes | 0.494 | 0.992 | $22.8k | +$11.5k |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? · Yes | 0.387 | 0.405 | $5.9k | +$266.78 |
| NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.678 | 0.885 | $5.7k | +$1.3k |
| US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? · Yes | 0.365 | 0.275 | $5.6k | −$1.8k |
| Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? · Yes | 0.621 | 0.415 | $2.0k | −$986.43 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$5.5kat 0.386US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 4?
- +$4.3kat 0.637Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in August?
- +$3.3kat 0.592Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 in August?
- +$3.0kat 0.520US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 31?
- +$2.7kat 0.503US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by September 7?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-29 08:00 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.84 | $42.00 |
| 10-27 12:34 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.14 | $0.93 |
| 10-27 12:34 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.1499999925 | $1.00 |
| 10-27 12:33 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.85 | $42.50 |
| 10-26 07:07 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.82 | $53.87 |
| 10-22 08:17 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.73 | $148.35 |
| 10-19 06:06 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through October 31? | SELL | 0.82 | $123.00 |
| 10-15 07:21 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | SELL | 0.41 | $59.86 |
| 10-15 06:09 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through November 30? | SELL | 0.41 | $122.18 |
| 10-12 05:58 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.79 | $7.90 |
| 10-12 05:42 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.79 | $7.90 |
| 10-12 05:29 | NATO x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.79 | $109.53 |
| 10-03 06:47 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | BUY | 0.63 | $325.29 |
| 10-03 06:46 | US x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | BUY | 0.31 | $545.40 |
| 10-03 06:45 | Israel x Iran ceasefire continues through December 31? | BUY | 0.62 | $623.81 |