PolyBot

Market data · no accounts, no trading

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Traders

ceotron

0x09175afed3d90bc7f0fa96efa28be2531c395797

Realised P&L
$-95.53
Volume
$2.5k
Markets traded
77
Open portfolio
$6.89

Can you copy this trader?

difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.

These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.

What was checked

BlockerEdge per dollar-3.9%
Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
ClearMarkets traded77
Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
CautionProfit concentration31.5% from one position
Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
CautionSettled sample14 positions
Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
Not knownWin rate (sample)57.1%
Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
CautionOpen concentration71.3% in top position
Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.

Largest open positions

Open positions held by this wallet, largest current value first.
MarketAvgNowValueUnrealised
Will Austria win 2026-27 Nations League Group B3? · Yes0.8800.865$4.91−$0.09
Will Austria be promoted to Nations League A in 2026-27? · Yes0.8400.507$1.81−$1.19
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? · Yes0.1120.018$0.17−$0.83
Will "One Battle After Another" win exactly 4 awards at the Oscars? · Yes0.1240.000$0.00−$1.00
Will Saudi Aramco be the largest company in the world by market cap on June 30? · Yes0.0070.000$0.00−$1.00
Will Norway win on 2026-07-11? · Yes0.2350.000$0.00−$1.00
Will Austria win on 2026-06-27? · Yes0.3400.000$0.00−$3.00
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 3, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET · Up0.1100.000$0.00−$1.00
Will OpenAI release a new frontier model on or before June 30, 2026? · Yes0.6800.000$0.00−$1.00
Will Hillary say "FBI" during her Epstein testimony? · Yes0.0230.000$0.00−$1.00
NATO/EU troops fighting in Ukraine in June 30, 2026? · Yes0.0400.000$0.00−$5.00
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 2, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET · Down0.2220.000$0.00−$1.00
Will Spain vs. Austria end in a draw? · Yes0.1800.000$0.00−$2.00
Will Claude 5 be released by March 15, 2026? · Yes0.0190.000$0.00−$1.00
Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07? · Yes0.2500.000$0.00−$1.00

Biggest settled wins

A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.

Recent fills

Most recent fills for this wallet, newest first.
TimeMarketSidePriceValue
10-02 00:41Will Russia target Kyiv on October 4, 2026?BUY0.0899999928$1.00
10-02 00:38Will Austria be promoted to Nations League A in 2026-27?BUY0.8399998992$3.00
10-02 00:37Will Austria win 2026-27 Nations League Group B3?BUY0.8799999859$5.00
07-10 21:02Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-11?BUY0.162499868$1.00
07-10 21:02Will Norway win on 2026-07-11?BUY0.2349998284$1.00
07-07 19:41Will Switzerland win on 2026-07-07?BUY0.2699999163$2.00
07-07 18:01Will Argentina vs. Egypt end in a draw?BUY0.05$1.00
07-07 17:37Will Morocco win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.0289999724$1.00
07-07 17:37Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.0169999966$5.00
07-07 17:36Will Morocco win on 2026-07-09?BUY0.14999994$2.00
07-07 16:38Will Egypt win on 2026-07-07?BUY0.25$1.00
07-06 09:11Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.128999904$1.00
07-06 09:11Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?BUY0.0479999551$1.00
07-02 06:20Will Norway win on 2026-07-05?BUY0.2199998548$1.00
07-02 06:19Will Canada win on 2026-07-04?BUY0.1899998784$1.00