userxp
0x08e5de96fadc570aca13777738c72260e5c55d30
- Realised P&L
- $-1.4k
- Volume
- $97.5k
- Markets traded
- 790
- Open portfolio
- $839.20
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded790
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- CautionProfit concentration39.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)44.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration40.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? · Yes | 0.890 | 0.855 | $342.00 | −$14.00 |
| Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.900 | 0.865 | $173.00 | −$7.00 |
| Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026? · No | 0.972 | 0.975 | $97.50 | +$0.30 |
| Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? · Yes | 0.881 | 0.873 | $87.30 | −$0.80 |
| Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from Minas Gerais? · No | 0.910 | 0.895 | $54.59 | −$0.92 |
| Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? · No | 0.900 | 0.905 | $45.25 | +$0.25 |
| Will the SpaceX Starship launch from Florida by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.320 | 0.310 | $35.65 | −$1.10 |
| Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 9, 2026? · Yes | 0.420 | 0.360 | $3.60 | −$0.60 |
| Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 8, 2026? · Yes | 0.680 | 0.060 | $0.30 | −$3.10 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$273.79at 0.770Will the chopsticks catch SpaceX Starship Flight Test 11 Superheavy booster?
- +$259.70at 0.010Bitcoin Up or Down - August 13, 8AM ET
- +$205.80at 0.510Bitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 12PM ET
- +$156.80at 0.510Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 10 PM ET
- +$107.80at 0.510Bitcoin Up or Down - July 13, 6AM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 22:47 | Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 9, 2026? | BUY | 0.42 | $4.20 |
| 10-08 21:10 | Will SpaceX Starship Flight Test 15 launch by November 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9 | $90.00 |
| 10-08 12:58 | Will Ukraine target Moscow on October 8, 2026? | BUY | 0.68 | $3.40 |
| 10-07 21:47 | Israel accuses Iran/proxies of plane stabbing incident by Oct 31? | BUY | 0.9 | $45.00 |
| 10-07 21:44 | Will Mojtaba Khamenei be head of state in Iran end of 2026? | BUY | 0.881 | $88.10 |
| 10-07 13:18 | Will Iliana Iotova win the next Bulgarian presidential election? | BUY | 0.89 | $356.00 |
| 10-06 23:43 | Will Russia target Kyiv on October 7, 2026? | BUY | 0.983 | $117.96 |
| 10-06 23:30 | Will Russia announce a new forced mobilization by October 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.972 | $97.20 |
| 10-06 11:05 | Will the SpaceX Starship launch from Florida by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.39 | $5.20 |
| 10-06 10:15 | Will the SpaceX Starship launch from Florida by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.33 | $0.55 |
| 10-20 19:48 | Bitcoin Up or Down - October 20, 3PM ET | BUY | 0.46 | $4.60 |
| 10-20 19:42 | Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? | SELL | 0.969 | $57.15 |
| 10-20 19:42 | Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? | SELL | 0.969 | $935.43 |
| 10-18 01:17 | Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? | SELL | 0.962 | $212.63 |
| 10-14 21:21 | Will Google have the best AI model on October 31? | BUY | 0.96 | $12.32 |