JeffLLLLLLLLL
0x0899c20a474da7b71ebd1a78483f5154449fd645
- Realised P&L
- $673.30
- Volume
- $25.5k
- Markets traded
- 30
- Open portfolio
- $32.45
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- CautionEdge per dollar2.6%
- Real but slim. Leaves little room for the slippage a copier pays by entering later.
- ClearMarkets traded30
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration85.9% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample25 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)60.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration91.6% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.271 | 0.155 | $29.73 | −$22.27 |
| Will Xi Jinping purge Zhang Shengmin in 2026? · Yes | 0.100 | 0.019 | $1.90 | −$8.10 |
| China x India military clash by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.170 | 0.070 | $0.82 | −$1.18 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET · Down | 0.306 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$5.00 |
| Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? · Yes | 0.130 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$603.92at 0.098Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
- +$36.22at 0.641Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Péter Magyar?
- +$27.54at 0.101Will SpaceX's public ticker be $X?
- +$10.38at 0.655Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán?
- +$4.94at 0.285Bitcoin Up or Down - April 9, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 07-13 03:11 | Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027? | SELL | 0.1 | $20.43 |
| 07-13 03:11 | Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027? | SELL | 0.11 | $155.43 |
| 07-13 03:10 | Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027? | SELL | 0.12 | $114.81 |
| 06-16 03:38 | Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? | BUY | 0.1299999902 | $10.00 |
| 05-07 00:48 | Will Trump visit China by May 31? | SELL | 0.952 | $6.96 |
| 04-23 00:48 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY | 0.0599999946 | $10.00 |
| 04-22 08:39 | Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April? | BUY | 0.1 | $350.00 |
| 04-22 00:51 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.2729999951 | $27.00 |
| 04-22 00:50 | Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.11 | $20.00 |
| 04-22 00:48 | Will Trump visit China by April 30? | SELL | 0.006 | $0.69 |
| 04-22 00:48 | Will China blockade Taiwan by June 30? | SELL | 0.0304800768 | $0.63 |
| 04-22 00:47 | Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? | SELL | 0.071 | $2.40 |
| 04-18 11:35 | US x Iran permanent peace deal by April 22, 2026? | SELL | 0.25 | $2.78 |
| 04-14 03:10 | Zhang Youxia sentenced to prison before 2027? | BUY | 0.1199999992 | $128.00 |
| 04-14 03:08 | Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET | BUY | 0.289999964 | $4.49 |