eletiongate
0x0823a1ce340834e97b8283fbe8da68ac9162a970
- Realised P&L
- $292.20
- Volume
- $58.2k
- Markets traded
- 232
- Open portfolio
- $1.4k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.5%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded232
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration18.4% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.4% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Xi Jinping out before 2027? · No | 0.954 | 0.972 | $470.21 | +$8.39 |
| Lee Jae-myung arrested before 2027? · No | 0.886 | 0.951 | $190.09 | +$12.90 |
| Will Ethereum hit $6k by March 31, 2027? · No | 0.932 | 0.941 | $166.21 | +$1.45 |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by October 31? · No | 0.991 | 0.992 | $128.96 | +$0.13 |
| Will Ethereum reach $4,500 in October? · No | 0.995 | 0.999 | $99.85 | +$0.35 |
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? · No | 0.971 | 0.971 | $97.05 | −$0.05 |
| Will Ethereum hit $6k by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.974 | 0.971 | $60.17 | −$0.23 |
| IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31? · No | 0.987 | 0.974 | $48.70 | −$0.65 |
| Iran leadership change by October 31? · No | 0.983 | 0.973 | $48.65 | −$0.50 |
| Will Donald Trump visit Syria in 2026? · No | 0.930 | 0.935 | $37.40 | +$0.20 |
| Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in October? · No | 0.992 | 0.994 | $20.87 | +$0.04 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$429.00at 0.523Will the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on February 20?
- +$132.60at 0.664Will Ethereum hit $3000 by Friday?
- +$106.46at 0.899Will Iran Play in the World Cup?
- +$40.48at 0.965Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwide by April 5?
- +$20.27at 0.979Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on April 26?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-08 07:55 | Will Dogecoin reach $0.20 in October? | BUY | 0.992 | $20.83 |
| 10-08 07:54 | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | BUY | 0.971 | $97.10 |
| 10-08 07:37 | Will Ethereum hit $6k by March 31, 2027? | BUY | 0.9322695072 | $164.76 |
| 10-08 07:37 | Will Ethereum hit $6k by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.9742903226 | $60.41 |
| 10-08 07:29 | IAEA visits Isfahan, Fordow, or Natanz nuclear site by October 31? | BUY | 0.987 | $49.35 |
| 10-08 07:27 | Iran leadership change by October 31? | BUY | 0.983 | $49.15 |
| 10-08 07:27 | Will Donald Trump visit Lebanon in 2026? | SELL | 0.988 | $29.64 |
| 10-08 07:25 | Will Ethereum reach $4,500 in October? | BUY | 0.995 | $99.50 |
| 09-20 08:36 | XRP all time high by September 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.994 | $281.30 |
| 09-20 07:36 | Will Donald Trump visit Syria in 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $27.90 |
| 09-01 07:47 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | BUY | 0.953 | $190.60 |
| 08-24 07:03 | Xi Jinping out before 2027? | BUY | 0.955 | $271.22 |
| 08-24 06:56 | Will Donald Trump visit Lebanon in 2026? | BUY | 0.925 | $27.75 |
| 08-24 06:55 | Will Donald Trump visit Syria in 2026? | BUY | 0.93 | $9.30 |
| 08-24 06:53 | Iran leadership change by September 30? | BUY | 0.967 | $38.68 |