NotManu
0x08155f2d7007d82b5f1954fa5bca737758141dc5
- Realised P&L
- $82.83
- Volume
- $32.7k
- Markets traded
- 449
- Open portfolio
- $58.03
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded449
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- ClearProfit concentration13.2% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)42.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration18.8% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$114.07at 0.304S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 7?
- +$108.59at 0.316Brazil vs. Norway: Team to Advance
- +$70.25at 0.757S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 16?
- +$43.67at 0.640Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET
- +$39.47at 0.570S&P 500 (SPX) Up or Down on April 14?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-11 06:56 | Will JPMorgan say "Credit Card" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.6799999577 | $4.50 |
| 10-11 06:54 | Will JPMorgan say "Housing" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.5199999792 | $8.00 |
| 10-11 06:53 | Will JPMorgan say "Leverage" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.8099999784 | $4.50 |
| 10-11 06:45 | Will JPMorgan say "Money" 5+ times during earnings call? | BUY | 0.6899999821 | $5.00 |
| 10-11 06:45 | Will JPMorgan say "Reduction" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.3599999712 | $3.00 |
| 10-11 06:44 | Will JPMorgan say "Housing" during earnings call? | BUY | 0.5199999792 | $3.00 |
| 10-11 06:27 | Will Flávio Bolsonaro win Brazil, Gadi Eizenkot become Israeli PM, and Democrats win the US Senate? | BUY | 0.279999986 | $4.00 |
| 10-11 06:21 | Will Lula win the most votes in the second round of the Brazil presidential election from abroad? | BUY | 0.7099999349 | $6.00 |
| 10-05 17:58 | Bitcoin Up or Down on October 5? | SELL | 0.376 | $2.82 |
| 10-05 17:58 | Bitcoin Up or Down on October 5? | BUY | 0.4 | $3.00 |
| 10-05 17:54 | Will Pedro Sánchez be the next Prime Minister of Spain? | BUY | 0.7469999533 | $4.00 |
| 10-05 17:54 | Will Pedro Sánchez be the next leader out before 2027? | BUY | 0.8119998969 | $4.00 |
| 09-29 07:18 | Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting? | BUY | 0.6899999821 | $5.00 |
| 09-29 05:41 | Will Anthropic IPO by December 15, 2026? | SELL | 0.18 | $3.46 |
| 09-28 18:58 | Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in September? | SELL | 0.983 | $8.94 |