FredericChopin
0x08005e9dc4d8b989465b3a4d8a7a82564e63ceb0
- Realised P&L
- $-13.8k
- Volume
- $1.06M
- Markets traded
- 2,889
- Open portfolio
- $1.9k
Can you copy this trader?
difficult — Possible in principle, but at least one signal says a copier would not keep the edge. Worth understanding before following.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.3%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- CautionMarkets traded2,889
- High turnover. Following this needs automation and low latency, not judgement.
- ClearProfit concentration18.5% from one position
- Profit is spread across many positions, which is what a method looks like.
- ClearSettled sample50 positions
- Enough settled positions for a win rate to mean something, though still not proof.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)78.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration42.1% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$1.6kat 0.082Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from May 15 to May 22, 2026?
- +$1.6kat 0.097Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from July 7 to July 14, 2026?
- +$1.2kat 0.051Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026?
- +$1.2kat 0.237Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from April 17 to April 24, 2026?
- +$1.1kat 0.044Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-27 09:33 | Will CZ post 20-39 posts from August 25 to September 1, 2026? | BUY | 0.64 | $12.80 |
| 08-27 09:33 | Will CZ post 0-19 posts from August 25 to September 1, 2026? | BUY | 0.12 | $2.51 |
| 08-19 03:15 | Will Anyone's Legend Win the Shortest Game in LPL 2026 Split 3? | BUY | 0.96 | $19.20 |
| 08-18 07:03 | Will Top Esports Win the Shortest Game in LPL 2026 Split 3? | BUY | 0.978 | $19.56 |
| 08-17 03:43 | Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? | BUY | 0.67 | $88.52 |
| 08-16 15:21 | Will Amazon be the largest company in the world by market cap on August 31? | SELL | 0.001 | $0.05 |
| 08-16 10:15 | Will Anyone's Legend Win the Shortest Game in LPL 2026 Split 3? | BUY | 0.89 | $17.80 |
| 08-16 09:54 | Will Anyone's Legend Win the Shortest Game in LPL 2026 Split 3? | BUY | 0.88 | $17.60 |
| 08-15 14:31 | Will Anyone's Legend Win the Shortest Game in LPL 2026 Split 3? | BUY | 0.89 | $17.80 |
| 08-12 08:18 | Will Anyone's Legend Win the Shortest Game in LPL 2026 Split 3? | BUY | 0.9 | $90.45 |
| 08-12 06:25 | Christopher Luxon out by September 30? | SELL | 0.93 | $23.25 |
| 08-08 14:06 | Will Anyone's Legend Win the Shortest Game in LPL 2026 Split 3? | BUY | 0.88 | $17.60 |
| 08-08 08:03 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.86 | $86.00 |
| 08-07 11:55 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 21, 2026? | BUY | 0.004 | $0.60 |
| 08-07 11:54 | Will the next Google Gemini Pro model be released on August 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.816 | $16.32 |