1dad
0x07aa130f25e9f8aad138fa12de8e1bce7455e110
- Realised P&L
- $406.48
- Volume
- $190.6k
- Markets traded
- 8
- Open portfolio
- $119.4k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded8
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration42.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample3 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)100.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration50.3% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? · No | 0.925 | 0.973 | $60.1k | +$2.9k |
| Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? · No | 0.840 | 0.966 | $56.2k | +$7.3k |
| Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.757 | 0.735 | $2.8k | −$86.22 |
| USD0 depeg by December 31? · No | 0.939 | 0.940 | $300.19 | +$0.19 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET · Up | 0.270 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$27.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$182.96at 0.997Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31?
- +$152.79at 0.950Bill Gates charged by June 30?
- +$97.73at 0.968Will Artemis II launch by April 30?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-05 16:45 | Will an AI lab announce another Millennium Prize solution by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.7574425518 | $2.9k |
| 10-05 16:40 | USD0 depeg by December 31? | BUY | 0.9394159138 | $300.00 |
| 04-01 20:30 | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | BUY | 0.9248885903 | $56.6k |
| 04-01 20:26 | Will Artemis II launch by April 30? | BUY | 0.9683125176 | $3.0k |
| 04-01 18:50 | Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026? | BUY | 0.917 | $91.70 |
| 03-20 19:46 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.84 | $48.9k |
| 03-20 19:46 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist by March 31? | BUY | 0.9969604542 | $60.0k |