0x0742a3845e01ffe9042367f282e9517b48d21b48
- Realised P&L
- $-11.6k
- Volume
- $745.4k
- Markets traded
- 28
- Open portfolio
- $8.0k
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.6%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- ClearMarkets traded28
- Enough decisions to look like a method, few enough that each one is followable.
- BlockerProfit concentration59.4% from one position
- Most of the sampled profit is a single bet. That is a record of one outcome, not evidence of a repeatable method — and you cannot copy a bet that already resolved.
- CautionSettled sample21 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)47.6%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration85.1% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Kamala Harris win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.049 | 0.048 | $6.8k | −$204.04 |
| Will Donald Trump win the 2028 US Presidential Election? · Yes | 0.021 | 0.011 | $623.38 | −$623.57 |
| Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested by December 31? · Yes | 0.638 | 0.526 | $234.09 | −$50.05 |
| Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31? · Yes | 0.065 | 0.047 | $202.85 | −$75.70 |
| Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by December 31? · Yes | 0.490 | 0.330 | $82.08 | −$39.76 |
| Miguel Díaz-Canel out as leader of Cuba by December 31? · Yes | 0.637 | 0.140 | $43.29 | −$153.71 |
| Will Adrián de la Garza Santos win the 2027 Nuevo León Governor Election? · Yes | 0.190 | 0.205 | $2.95 | +$0.22 |
| Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? · Yes | 0.026 | 0.023 | $1.52 | −$0.19 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$511.38at 0.502Will Imelda Castro Castro win the 2027 Sinaloa Governor Election?
- +$178.80at 0.070U.S. anti-cartel ground operation in Mexico by January 31?
- +$49.49at 0.910Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
- +$42.19at 0.897Philadelphia Phillies vs. Seattle Mariners
- +$37.15at 0.907Tampa Bay Rays vs. Detroit Tigers
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-17 18:53 | Will Imelda Castro Castro win the 2027 Sinaloa Governor Election? | SELL | 0.8532994102 | $1.3k |
| 09-14 05:46 | Will Adrián de la Garza Santos win the 2027 Nuevo León Governor Election? | BUY | 0.1899999875 | $2.73 |
| 09-09 05:34 | Will the U.S. invade Colombia in 2026? | BUY | 0.0258458317 | $1.71 |
| 09-06 17:57 | Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31? | BUY | 0.0599999518 | $1.12 |
| 09-04 19:15 | Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31? | BUY | 0.0661556135 | $68.23 |
| 09-04 19:15 | Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31? | BUY | 0.064 | $52.02 |
| 09-04 19:15 | Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31? | BUY | 0.064 | $52.02 |
| 09-04 19:15 | Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31? | BUY | 0.064 | $52.02 |
| 09-04 19:14 | Claudia Sheinbaum out as President of Mexico by December 31? | BUY | 0.0632059044 | $52.02 |
| 09-02 14:18 | Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by December 31? | BUY | 0.4799998671 | $1.30 |
| 09-01 23:42 | Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by December 31? | BUY | 0.4773410834 | $5.65 |
| 09-01 23:42 | Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by December 31? | BUY | 0.4999605948 | $21.55 |
| 09-01 23:42 | Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha extradited to US by December 31? | BUY | 0.488461456 | $93.34 |
| 09-01 22:28 | Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested by December 31? | BUY | 0.6411439079 | $126.90 |
| 09-01 22:28 | Sinaloa Gov. Ruben Rocha arrested by December 31? | BUY | 0.5684810807 | $85.23 |