.avaron
0x0736862da6d4b78f1fee69fc3b7bd8b21f709e43
- Realised P&L
- $-8.43
- Volume
- $4.5k
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $9.57
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-0.2%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- Not knownProfit concentration—
- No settled positions sampled.
- CautionSettled sample4 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)0.0%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration34.5% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Dario Amodei attend the White House state dinner for Xi Jinping? · Yes | 0.010 | 0.060 | $3.30 | +$2.75 |
| Will Renan Santos win between 6% and 8% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.086 | 0.055 | $2.20 | −$1.24 |
| Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31? · Yes | 0.150 | 0.065 | $1.82 | −$2.38 |
| 2026 Balance of Power: Other · Yes | 0.002 | 0.002 | $0.68 | −$0.23 |
| Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in September? · Yes | 0.002 | 0.002 | $0.68 | −$0.23 |
| Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.001 | $0.44 | −$0.44 |
| Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? · Yes | 0.001 | 0.001 | $0.44 | −$0.44 |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - September 24, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET · Down | 0.010 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.55 |
| Counter-Strike: Keyd vs ALKA - Map 2 Winner · Keyd | 0.001 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$0.95 |
| Will Netanyahu use a visual aid during his UNGA speech? · No | 0.270 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$4.05 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$-0.12at 0.359Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election?
- +$-0.16at 0.5102026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House
- +$-0.17at 0.553Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
- +$-2.81at 0.392Indiana Fever vs. Minnesota Lynx
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 09-24 23:47 | Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in September? | BUY | 0.002 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 23:45 | Indiana Fever vs. Minnesota Lynx | SELL | 0.37 | $31.08 |
| 09-24 23:22 | 2026 Balance of Power: Other | BUY | 0.002 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 23:21 | Will Renan Santos win between 6% and 8% of the valid vote in the first round of the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.086 | $3.44 |
| 09-24 23:21 | Indiana Fever vs. Minnesota Lynx | BUY | 0.38 | $31.92 |
| 09-24 23:21 | Will Dario Amodei attend the White House state dinner for Xi Jinping? | BUY | 0.01 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 23:21 | Will Netanyahu use a visual aid during his UNGA speech? | BUY | 0.27 | $4.05 |
| 09-24 23:21 | Kanye West performs in Russia by October 31? | BUY | 0.15 | $4.20 |
| 09-24 23:21 | Bitcoin Up or Down - September 24, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET | BUY | 0.01 | $1.00 |
| 09-24 23:20 | Counter-Strike: Keyd vs ALKA - Map 2 Winner | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 09-14 22:01 | Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 09-14 21:26 | Will Eduardo Leite win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? | BUY | 0.001 | $1.00 |
| 09-14 19:42 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | SELL | 0.352 | $2.51 |
| 09-11 09:23 | Will Marine Le Pen win the 2027 French presidential election? | BUY | 0.349999958 | $2.50 |
| 09-11 09:23 | 2026 Balance of Power: D Senate, D House | SELL | 0.49 | $2.69 |