Roserage
0x06e27f64bb761dd8ef9db7e1509fa9baafb5da96
- Realised P&L
- $-639.00
- Volume
- $8.7k
- Markets traded
- 14
- Open portfolio
- $333.87
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-7.4%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded14
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration41.1% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample7 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)71.4%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- CautionOpen concentration69.5% in top position
- Most of the open book is one position. Copying inherits that concentration.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? · Yes | 0.517 | 0.240 | $232.15 | −$267.85 |
| Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.153 | 0.160 | $52.12 | +$2.12 |
| Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? · Yes | 0.187 | 0.185 | $49.60 | −$0.40 |
| Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025? · Yes | 0.306 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$100.00 |
| Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? · No | 0.501 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$250.00 |
| Will Solana reach $90 in August? · No | 0.310 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$50.00 |
| Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? · Yes | 0.610 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$500.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$429.37at 0.538Will Donald Trump win the 2024 US Presidential Election?
- +$278.12at 0.266Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election?
- +$231.84at 0.633US x Iran nuclear talks resume before July?
- +$81.64at 0.568US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026?
- +$22.50at 0.865Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 08-20 10:52 | Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.1869999971 | $50.00 |
| 08-20 10:52 | Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? | BUY | 0.1529999977 | $50.00 |
| 08-20 10:51 | Will Solana reach $90 in August? | BUY | 0.3103676497 | $50.00 |
| 08-20 10:48 | Tyler Robinson convicted of homicide? | BUY | 0.5169088847 | $500.00 |
| 08-20 10:45 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | SELL | 0.963 | $223.95 |
| 05-26 13:59 | Internet Access restored in Iran by May 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5013294485 | $250.00 |
| 05-13 08:13 | Will the US confirm that aliens exist before 2027? | BUY | 0.8599999971 | $200.00 |
| 01-15 18:15 | US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? | SELL | 0.9501403837 | $203.04 |
| 01-14 20:30 | US strikes Iran by January 16, 2026? | BUY | 0.5681282315 | $121.41 |
| 06-19 21:18 | US x Iran nuclear talks resume before July? | BUY | 0.6328313533 | $399.58 |
| 06-19 21:14 | Will Iran close the Strait of Hormuz in 2025? | BUY | 0.3062938433 | $100.00 |
| 06-19 21:12 | Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran in 2025? | BUY | 0.6099999996 | $500.00 |
| 10-14 14:41 | Will Donald Trump win the popular vote in the 2024 Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.2659999984 | $100.79 |
| 10-14 14:41 | Kamala Harris wins the popular vote? | BUY | 0.7179999998 | $99.00 |
| 10-14 14:40 | Will Kamala Harris win the 2024 US Presidential Election? | BUY | 0.4559999995 | $500.00 |