sheriff0815
0x06cbd80db1f5fb32c3173d7a6e6164c48a16c49b
- Realised P&L
- $-38.40
- Volume
- $2.2k
- Markets traded
- 19
- Open portfolio
- $36.97
Can you copy this trader?
unrealistic — Multiple hard blockers. Interesting to watch, but mirroring this would not reproduce its returns.
These checks compare a wallet’s past record against thresholds chosen by hand. They are not measurements, and none has been tested against out-of-sample returns — that needs the backtester. Every signal looks backwards.
What was checked
- BlockerEdge per dollar-1.7%
- Thinner than the spread a taker crosses. Whatever this wallet is doing, a follower's worse fills would erase it — the profit comes from volume, not from a per-trade advantage you could inherit.
- BlockerMarkets traded19
- Too few decisions to be a method. A large profit over this many markets is a handful of correct calls — possibly skill, possibly luck, possibly information you don't have — and none of it is repeatable enough to copy going forward.
- CautionProfit concentration36.2% from one position
- Meaningfully concentrated. Check whether the rest of the book is actually profitable.
- CautionSettled sample12 positions
- Too few settled positions to distinguish skill from luck. Any win rate here is noise.
- Not knownWin rate (sample)33.3%
- Deliberately unscored. Win rate says nothing without position sizing — selling longshots wins often and loses big, buying them does the reverse.
- ClearOpen concentration40.3% in top position
- Open risk is spread across several positions.
Largest open positions
| Market | Avg | Now | Value | Unrealised |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? · No | 0.554 | 0.825 | $14.88 | +$4.88 |
| Will Israel annex any territory by December 31? · No | 0.850 | 0.940 | $11.06 | +$1.06 |
| Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? · Yes | 0.060 | 0.042 | $7.00 | −$3.00 |
| Kraken IPO closing market cap above $28B? · Yes | 0.108 | 0.063 | $2.33 | −$1.70 |
| Will Bernie endorse Antonio Delgado for NY-Gov by Nov 2 2026 ET? · Yes | 0.077 | 0.010 | $1.30 | −$8.70 |
| Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? · Yes | 0.240 | 0.095 | $0.40 | −$0.60 |
| Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? · Yes | 0.036 | 0.000 | $0.00 | −$10.00 |
Biggest settled wins
A highlight reel, excluded from every check above — measuring a wallet against its own best trades reports a 100% win rate for everyone.
- +$0.12at 0.988Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026?
- +$0.10at 0.990Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026?
- +$0.10at 0.910Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in May?
- +$0.01at 0.986SPY (SPY) Up or Down on May 5?
- +$0.00at 0.250Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
Recent fills
| Time | Market | Side | Price | Value |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 05-19 08:02 | Ukraine election called by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.0364227685 | $10.00 |
| 05-19 08:02 | Ukraine election held by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9879999478 | $10.00 |
| 05-17 18:33 | Will Trump resign by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.0599999946 | $10.00 |
| 05-17 18:33 | Will Israel annex any territory by December 31? | BUY | 0.85 | $10.00 |
| 05-17 17:12 | Will any country leave NATO by June 30, 2026? | BUY | 0.9899999099 | $10.00 |
| 05-17 17:12 | Will Bernie endorse Antonio Delgado for NY-Gov by Nov 2 2026 ET? | BUY | 0.0769999934 | $10.00 |
| 05-17 10:28 | Kraken IPO by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.5544554296 | $10.00 |
| 05-17 10:28 | Kraken IPO closing market cap above $28B? | BUY | 0.1080364318 | $4.03 |
| 05-17 09:34 | Will the Labour Party win the next Maltese general election by less than 5%? | SELL | 0.1943435535 | $4.94 |
| 05-17 09:34 | Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.06 | $7.50 |
| 05-17 09:34 | Will Labour Party win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2026 Maltese general election? | SELL | 0.069 | $8.78 |
| 05-17 09:26 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | SELL | 0.25 | $10.00 |
| 05-16 20:25 | Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.25 | $10.00 |
| 05-16 20:25 | Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by December 31, 2026? | BUY | 0.08 | $10.00 |
| 05-16 15:35 | Will Labour Party win the most seats in the House of Representatives in the 2026 Maltese general election? | BUY | 0.0786238641 | $10.00 |